SEC Bowl Projections: Predicting the bowl fates for UGA, other major players

ATLANTA–Mid-October marks a good time to start morphing into the role of soothsayer (or know-it-all charlatan), in terms of predicting the matchup for every major bowl in college football, along with the next-tier games involving various SEC programs.

Here comes the caveat: The following projections aren't necessarily based on which teams are currently killing it in the Associated Press and Coaches Poll rankings.

It's merely an educated guess of how things will shake out over the next seven Saturdays.

And luckily for us, we'll roll with the punches again next Tuesday ... in the form of updated projections.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF–SEMIFINALS

ORANGE: #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson

BREAKDOWN

Here's my rationale for how this quartet comes together on Dec. 29 (Cotton and Orange bowls):

**Top-ranked Alabama breezes through the regular season with a perfect record, which shall include a road win over LSU (Nov. 3), home rout of Auburn in the Iron Bowl (Nov. 24) and prevailing over Georgia in the SEC title game.

**Ohio State enjoys a similarly stellar run through the Big Ten, eclipsing Michigan and Michigan State for the Big Ten East crown (November showdowns) ... and then rolling over Iowa in the conference championship.

**Clemson has just one ranked team on its schedule (Saturday vs. North Carolina State), so the pressure's on to prevail in the short term and subsequently hold strong for the final five games.

Fair warning: The trips to Florida State and Boston College won't be cakewalks.

**Oklahoma represents a controversial pick here, since six other major powers are better positioned to reach the four-team Playoff.

However, as history dictates, there's typically a big distinction between the first set of rankings (late October) ... and the final-four listing. The turnover rate can be mind-blowing, at times.

So, in case you're wondering, here's how the Sooners might magically leapfrog the pack for the final Playoff slot:

a) Notre Dame carries an undefeated mark into its regular-season finale with USC. The road trip in southern California doesn't go well, however, resulting in the Irish falling out of the final foursome.

b) LSU would certainly have the resume to become the first two-loss school in College Football Playoff history, knocking off Auburn, Miami and Georgia when all three programs were ranked in the AP Top 10.

However, without a conference championship on the mantle, the CFP committee would probably look elsewhere for the final slot.

CLEMONS: A look at Georgia's adjusted path to reaching the four-team Playoff

CLEMONS: Projecting the field for the Oct. 30 College Football Playoff rankings

The only possible change to that? The LSU-Alabama game on Nov. 3 becomes so hotly competitive ... that College Football Nation practically begs for a rematch.

(Spoiler alert: Not happening.)

c) Texas collects a share of the Big 12 regular-season title; but Oklahoma gets revenge in the conference title game.

From a capitalist perspective, I certainly understand why the Big 12 has a championship bout for the masses. It's free money for the conference bean counters and amazing national exposure.

From a fan standpoint, however, I've never understood the absurdity of staging automatic rematches for a league title game, since every member already has a full round-robin schedule.

d) UCF, which barely survived Memphis last Saturday night, has a zero margin of error here: Either go perfect from Day 1 to December 1 ... or there's no chance of making the Playoff.

And even then, the Knights might need help on the final weekend of action.

My belief: Either South Florida or Cincinnati (both ranked programs) takes down UCF in November.

e) Oregon actually has a great shot of making the Playoff field. The lone loss to Stanford hardly represents a black mark on the seasonal resume.

That said, the CFP invite would likely never come, if the Ducks cannot overtake Stanford (owns the head-to-head tiebreaker) for the Pac-12 North crown and compete for a conference championship (Nov. 30 in Santa Clara).

f) We'll change our minds about Kentucky ... the second the Wildcats upend the Bulldogs (Nov. 3 in Lexington).

The rest of the schedule, leading up to the SEC championship, seems eminently doable.

g) And last but not least ...

Georgia might have gotten crushed by LSU last week, but the Dawgs still have every major goal within reach.

As such, UGA wouldn't require much outside help to make the Playoff.

Here's the simple, yet daunting plan of attack:

1. Beat Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Tech during the regular season

2. Knock off either LSU, Texas A&M or Alabama in the SEC championship

NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWLS

PEACH: West Virginia vs. UCF

THE UGA CONUNDRUM

We had a nice discussion inside the 11Alive newsroom on Tuesday, built around one UGA-related dilemma:

When it comes to playing in a major bowl, would coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs prefer being close to home (Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and encountering UCF in a lose-win-lose matchup ... or would they rather fly out West and take on Notre Dame, as a wonderful prelude to next September's clash in Athens?

What does lose-win-lose mean? Georgia would garner very little kudos for beating Central Florida, outside of a massive blowout; but if the Dawgs fell to the Knights–even though they haven't lost a game in two years–there would be plenty of bluster coming in Smart's direction.

Upon reflection, we're opting for the former with UGA.

SEC-AFFILIATED BOWLS

BIRMINGHAM: No SEC representative (no other 6-win clubs)