ATLANTA – 11Alive Sports offers up a numbers-based suggestion box for the Braves, as the club begins strategic preparations for the upcoming playoffs.
First up, predicting the Braves' four-man starting rotation for the National League Divisional Series round, while acknowledging two current caveats:
1. Let's presume the NL East champion Braves (88-68), the 2-seed in the NL playoff picture, won't catch the Cubs (91-65) for the National League's best record ... although it's certainly plausible.
2. Atlanta also outlasts NL West-leading Los Angeles (88-69) for the second-best record among the NL division winners; as such, the Braves would own the home-field advantage against the Dodgers (best-of-5 series), namely Games 1, 2 and 5.
GAME 1 – MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ
This is a no-brainer move for Braves skipper Brian Snitker, citing four reasons:
a) Foltynewicz has been Atlanta's most bankable pitcher during the season, leading the club in wins (12–tied with Sean Newcomb), starters' ERA (2.88) and strikeouts (193).
b) Charting his last 10 outings, Foltynewicz owns rock-solid tallies with win-loss mark (5-3), ERA (2.60), K-BB rate (60/20), opponents' batting average (.182) and opponents' on-base percentage (.252).
c) Foltynewicz has averaged 6 2/3 innings over his last eight starts, and this includes the lone clunker of the bunch, when the Illinois native got rocked for six runs at home last week (didn't get out of the fifth inning versus the Cardinals).
d) It takes a special type of pitcher to run opposite Clayton Kershaw during the postseason, and presumably twice during a five-game series (NLDS); and Foltynewicz has the ideal temperament to handle this experience. He's already a workhorse asset.
For what it's worth, Foltynewicz doesn't have a long (or particularly successful) track record against the Dodgers or Rockies (trailing Los Angeles by 1 1/2 games).
2017-18 vs. Dodgers: Cumulative ERA of 5.36 (two starts)
2017-18 vs. Rockies: Cumulative ERA of 5.67 (three starts)
Career numbers @ Dodger Stadium: 4.26 ERA/1.26 WHIP (6.1 innings)
Career numbers @ Coors Field: 9.82 ERA/2.27 WHIP (11 innings)
GAME 2 – JULO TEHERAN
With the unlikely implementation of a struggling Newcomb (7.44 ERA, opponents' OBP of .392 in his last seven starts), the Braves will likely attack the NLDS round with four right-handed starters.
Translation: If there's no need for a right-left-right-left strategy during the series, why not rely on power pitchers for Games 1 and 2?
Here's why Teheran deserves the ball:
a) Teheran has been productive at home this season, posting decent marks with ERA (3.96), WHIP (1.22), opponents' batting average (.205) and opponents' slugging rate (.360).
Last year was an abomination for the right-hander, but he has seemingly adjusted to the nook-and-cranny contours of SunTrust Park.
b) The Dodgers have faced Teheran just once since July 2016; and when there's not intimate knowledge about an opponent, I tend to favor the pitcher.
c) There's an avoidance issue of Dodger Stadium at play here:
Of his four career starts at the iconic venue, Teheran has a 5.92 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
GAME 3 – KEVIN GAUSMAN
An easy call for Braves management.
The greatest gift a road pitcher can provide during the playoffs involves the act of throwing strikes; and when charting his last 15 outings, Gausman has surrendered three or fewer walks 14 times during this span.
What's more, Gausman owns a terrific record with Atlanta, since being traded from the 2018 version of baseball purgatory: Baltimore (the woeful Orioles are 45-111).
Counting his nine outings with the Braves to date, Gausman boasts a 5-2 record, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 38/15 K-BB rate and high-level FIP rate of 3.65.
GAME 4 – TOUKI TOUSSAINT
I certainly understand the public support for Anibal Sanchez, who has been superb in his last seven starts–2.72 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, .218 opponents' batting average, .275 opponents' OBP.
However, come playoff time, I want to scare the other team with high-upside talent ... and Toussaint has the necessary juice (and filthy repertoire) to turn this series on its ear.
Now, if the Braves are on the brink of elimination heading into Game 4, there's an argument for riding a steady, experienced hand, like Sanchez.
However, I don't live in fear of failure, especially since this club's playing with proverbial house money, in terms of capturing the hearts of Atlanta fans everywhere.
If Toussaint can handle the enormity of playoff pressure ... let it ride!
Of course, if Snitker envisions Toussaint as an Andrew Miller-type 'super-reliever' for this series, reserving the power right-hander for mostly high-leverage situations, that works me for me, as well.
Quandary ... solved
My biggest pet peeve during postseason play? I loathe managers who don't sell out to earn each and every victory.
Bottom line: The best skippers are typically the ones who recognize the value of demoralizing opponents' at every crucial turn ... whether it's the bottom of the 4th or top of the 8th.
