ATLANTA–11Alive Sports takes a third stab at predicting the matchups for every major bowl in college football, along with the next-tier games involving various SEC programs.
Here comes the caveat: The following projections aren't necessarily based on which teams are currently killing it in the Associated Press and Coaches Poll rankings.
It's merely an educated guess of how things will shake out over the next five Saturdays.
In case you're wondering ... the initial release of the College Football Playoff rankings occurs Tuesday night.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF–SEMIFINALS
COTTON: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Michigan
ORANGE: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Clemson
BREAKDOWN
Here's my rationale for how this quartet comes together on Dec. 29 (Cotton and Orange bowls):
1) Top-ranked Alabama marches through the regular season with a perfect record, which shall include a road win over LSU (this Saturday), home rout of Auburn in the Iron Bowl (Nov. 24) and prevailing over Georgia in the SEC title game.
2) In previous projections, we had Notre Dame losing to USC on Thanksgiving Saturday; and while the Trojans certainly have enough blue-chip talent to rise up and bring the goods for one day ... it's hard to envision Southern California dominating Notre Dame in any phase.
Stranger things have happened on Turkey Day weekend, though.
In fact, given the recent events, some national pundits might view Notre Dame's rare trip to Northwestern (this Saturday) as the Fighting Irish's biggest hurdle to a 12-0 record ... and easy-peasy berth in the four-team Playoff.
3) Unblemished Clemson runs the seasonal table, as well, gutting out a road win over sneaky-good Boston College and then knocking off the Coastal division champion (Virginia Tech/Virginia/Miami/Pitt/Georgia Tech) for the ACC championship.
And yes, there's a (slight) chance that between UGA and Georgia Tech ... the Yellow Jackets are the ones playing on Conference Championship Saturday.
4) Michigan doesn't buckle from the pressure of being the Big Ten's greatest hope for making the Playoff.
The Wolverines subsequently beat Penn State (Saturday), survive Ohio State on the road (Nov. 24) and then defeat Iowa or Northwestern for the conference championship.
5) Oklahoma's a tough call here for being the last team out, when paired against Michigan.
Perhaps we'll feel better about the Sooners' CFP chances, if/when they can handle daunting trips to Texas Tech and West Virginia.
After all, as history dictates, there's typically a big distinction between the first set of rankings (late October) ... and the final grouping in early December.
In fact, check out this amazing stat, courtesy of our friends at ESPN:
Charting the initial Playoff rankings release from 2014-17, the inaugural No. 3 seed never reached the CFP semifinals for that year.
Among the next tier of challengers ...
a) LSU would certainly have the resume to become the first two-loss school in College Football Playoff history, knocking off Auburn, Miami and Georgia when all three programs were ranked in the AP Top 10.
However, without a conference championship on the mantle, the CFP committee would probably look elsewhere for the final slot.
(Very similar to Auburn last year.)
The only possible major change? The LSU-Alabama game becomes so hotly competitive ... College Football Nation practically begs for a rematch.
(Spoiler alert: Not happening.)
b) Undefeated UCF has zero margin of error: Either go perfect from Day 1 to Dec. 1 ... or there's no chance of making the Playoff.
On the negative side, through no fault of their own, the Knights' playoff chances have taken a hit over the last two weekends, with previously ranked Cincinnati and South Florida both falling from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Why does that matter? Central Florida needed both schools to be playing at a high level into November, prior to facing the Bearcats and Bulls in consecutive weeks.
c) We'll change our still-skeptical minds about Kentucky ... the second after the Wildcats upend UGA in Lexington (Saturday).
The rest of the schedule, leading up to the SEC championship, seems eminently doable.
d) And last but not least ...
Georgia might have gotten schooled by LSU two-plus weeks ago, but the Dawgs still have every major goal within reach.
As such, UGA would require zero outside help to make the Playoff.
The simple checklist to CFP glory:
1. Beat Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Tech to close the regular season.
2. Knock off either LSU or Alabama in the SEC championship.
NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWLS PROJECTION
ROSE: Ohio State vs. Washington State
SUGAR: LSU vs. Oklahoma
FIESTA: UGA vs. Iowa
PEACH: West Virginia vs. UCF
THE UGA CONUNDRUM
When it comes to playing in a major bowl, would head coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs prefer being close to home (Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and encountering UCF in a lose-win-lose matchup ... or would they rather travel West and butt heads with a Big 12 power (Texas) or physical Big Ten foe (Iowa or Penn State)?
What does lose-win-lose mean? Georgia would garner very little kudos (nationally) for beating Central Florida, outside of a massive blowout.
However, if the Dawgs fell to the Knights–even though UCF hasn't lost in two years–there would be plenty of bluster coming in Smart's direction.
Upon reflection, we're opting for the Fiesta angle.
SEC-AFFILIATED BOWL PROJECTIONS
CITRUS: Kentucky vs. Penn State
OUTBACK: Florida vs. Michigan State
TAXSLAYER: Texas A&M vs. Boston College
LIBERTY: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech
BELK: South Carolina vs. North Carolina State
MUSIC CITY: Auburn vs. Miami
INDEPENDENCE: Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech
BIRMINGHAM: Vanderbilt vs. Memphis
