ATLANTA — A COVID-19 simulator predicts a second wave of cases in Georgia this summer based on easing restrictions. The simulator was developed by Georgia Tech, Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital.
“We are expecting the spike to come in about two to three months after the restrictions are lifted," Turgay Ayer, a Health Systems Engineering Professor at Georgia Tech, says.
“It’s very easy for this virus to accelerate and spread in the community but it is very difficult, as the WHO director said, to decelerate the spread in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions," he added.
The simulator estimates Georgia will see more than 23,000 deaths by August if restrictions were lifted in four more weeks. If restrictions are kept in place for 12 more weeks, the number of projected deaths drops to 1,940.
Ayer says a second wave of cases could not only affect public health, but the economy, as well.
“If we go through a second wave and the cases increase significantly, as we project based on our model, there’s a good chance that we will go back to what we are experiencing now, we may go back to these restrictions," he added.
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