ATLANTA — As Georgians celebrate their state surplus tax refund checks, a new state report shows that residents shouldn't automatically expect one next year.
Gov. Brian Kemp's office announced Tuesday a sharp drop in state tax revenue compared to one year ago. This is a bit of a different picture compared to the revenue surplus that state has seen in the last two years.
The report shows a nearly $840 million decrease in net taxes from this time last year, which translates to a 16.5% decrease.
11Alive's financial expert, Andrew Poulos, explains it's important to break down those numbers.
That 16.5% decrease in April's net tax collection numbers represents how much money Georgia generated through sales and use tax, individual and corporate income tax, and motor vehicle and fuel taxes.
Poulos says there is no need to panic yet.
"The numbers can be alarming when you look at 16.5% in comparison to last year, but we're also looking at the components that predict and indicate where we're headed, as far as consumer demand," he said.
Poulos said sales and use tax sales are in line with last year and that vehicle and motor fuel taxes are mostly in line with last year's numbers as well.
He adds that in the summer months, more money is injected into the economy, meaning numbers could change as time goes on.
"The numbers overall in totality are in line with last year, so that tells me that we're still in good shape. I'm looking for the second half of the year to see where we're going to be at," he said.
Emory Economist and Finance Professor Tom Smith also offered insight in what this could mean for Georgia's economy going forward.
“This doesn't impact the government's ability to provide services," he explained. "It might impact what their budget is going to be going forward and the kind of services they're likely to provide in the future. It is probably going to impact whether or not people see a refund.”
As for those $250-$500 tax rebates Georgians received last year and now again this year, Poulos says it is too early to tell if lawmakers will send out another round of rebates next year or not.
"We as Georgians may not get a $250 or $500 tax refund check next year from a budget surplus, or we can look at it with the glass half full," he said, explaining that the state would still have a strong economy.
Terry England, former chairman of the Appropriations Committee who held great sway over the state’s budget said that people "need to remember the rebates have been a result of higher than expected revenues and have never been intended to be ongoing."
"It's a concern for the average Joe or Jane on the street if the government doesn't have a tax surplus," Smith said. "These rebates might be significant for some people. So they might be counting on them. I wouldn't count on these rebates in order to make ends meet, though.”