ATLANTA — As Russia wages war on Ukraine, the country sparked additional concerns this week when it issued threats to Finland and Sweden that they would face "detrimental consequences" if they were to join NATO.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is the 30-member alliance that, by Vladimir Putin's declared reasoning, is responsible for his decision to invade Ukraine (though that reasoning is subject to scrutiny).
Putin has long insisted NATO's expanding membership is a threat to Russia, while countries who have joined - such as Russia's tiny Baltic neighbors Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - say they've done so as a deterrence from the aggression now being committed against Ukraine.
Among the Nordic countries, Norway is a NATO member, but Sweden and Finland - both geographically closer to Russia - are not.
It's never really been considered that they have any strong interest in joining the alliance, but Russia's incursion into Ukraine has sparked speculation that if Putin has expansionist intentions, he could eventually target them - and, as such, they might want to be NATO members.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin noted this week that, “Finland is not currently facing an immediate military threat, but it is also now clear that the debate on NATO membership in Finland will change.”
According to the prime minister, Finland even has a trigger-option to immediately apply to NATO "if Finland’s security requires it."
So would they actually ever join?
Finland and Sweden NATO potential
It still seems pretty unlikely, given the geopolitical implications and the nations' longstanding policy of military non-alignment, but Russia's invasion has certainly changed the calculus some.
Unsurprisingly, given that much of western Europe is part of NATO, Finland and Sweden already enjoy close relations with the alliance as a default.
Historically, the two countries have belonged to a satellite NATO initiative called the Partnership for Peace, which began as an avenue mainly for former Soviet republics and neutral parties - including Ukraine and even Russia itself - to join in cooperative programs with the NATO alliance. It's been many years since any new members joined, though, and the program appears to effectively be mothballed.
In light of the threats of "military and political consequences," if they ever officially joined it issued by Russia this week, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö noted that there could be an "enhanced information exchange and coordination" between NATO and the two countries.
“Sweden and Finland may, if they so wish on a case-by-case basis, participate in enhanced contacts with NATO, enhanced information exchange and coordination, information on operations and strategic communications,” he said Friday.
He reportedly stressed however that increased cooperation with NATO would not "equal the possibility of Finland joining NATO."
Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, meanwhile, asserted that "it is Sweden that itself and independently decides on our security policy line" in response to the Russian threat.
But, she also reiterated the country's commitment to its non-alignment policy.
“In a situation like this it is important that Sweden's long-standing security policy stays firm. That we are predictable and clear,” Andersson said. “Sweden has been alliance-free for an extremely long time. It has served Sweden's interests well."
Russia's plan and full endgame currently isn't clear, and amid the uncertainty Sweden and Finland both seem to be stressing their independence to make their own decisions and not be influenced by Russian threats.
But, given their internal politics and military policy history, the actual likelihood of them joining NATO remains remote.