ATLANTA — A new poll by 11Alive shows Gov. Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams continue to be locked in a tight race in their rematch of the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election.
The poll places the incumbent Republican ahead in the race 47%-45%, a result largely consistent with 11Alive's previous poll on this race in July, which showed him ahead 45%-44%.
The 11Alive survey tracks somewhat off from other recent polling, which show Kemp with a more comfortable lead. The RealClear Politics average since early September has had the governor ahead by seven points.
Of note, 11Alive's poll shows a larger gap for the governor in favorability - Kemp tracks plus-4, 41%-37% favorable to unfavorable, while Abrams tracks minus-3 at 40%-43% favorable to unfavorable.
The polling also indicates Kemp tracks well ahead of his Republican counterpart in the Georgia U.S. Senate race, Herschel Walker, while Abrams lags behind her Democratic counterpart in that race, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock.
(note: the poll did not specifically ask respondents about a third named candidate, instead presenting the option of "other." Libertarian Party candidate Shane Hazel is the only other candidate on the ballot, however.)
Brian Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams Georgia governor poll full result
- 1,076 likely November Georgia voters
- Margin of error: 3.7 percentage points
- 49% male respondents, 51% female
- 57% white respondents, 31% Black, 8% Hispanic, 4% Asian/other
If the November election for Georgia Governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
- Brian Kemp (R): 47%
- Stacey Abrams (D): 45%
- Other candidate: 3%
- Undecided: 5%
Favorability
11Alive also polled the candidates on their general favorability, which broke more in Kemp's favor than the head-to-head candidate polling.
- 1,305 registered voters
- Margin of error: 3.3 percentage points
Is your overall opinion of Brian Kemp favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion?
- Favorable: 41%
- Unfavorable: 37%
- Neutral: 17%
- No opinion: 6%
Is your overall opinion of Stacey Abrams favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion?
- Favorable: 40%
- Unfavorable: 43%
- Neutral: 12%
- No opinion: 5%
Additional analysis
- Women vs. Men: The poll indicated a large split between men and women in this race, with Kemp leading among male voters 53%-37% and Abrams leading among women 52%-41%.
- Conservatives and independents: The reason Abrams lags behind Warnock's overall support appears to be due more to self-identifying independents and conservatives being willing to vote for Warnock against Herschel Walker, but not for Abrams against Kemp. Self-identifying conservatives support Warnock at a rate of 19%, vs. 14% for Abrams, while self-identifying independents support Warnock at a rate of 47%, vs. 42% for Abrams. Republicans back Warnock at a rate of 11%, vs. just 4% for Abrams. Among liberals, they enjoy virtually identical support (89% for Warnock, 88% for Abrams). And among those who identify as "very liberal," they have equal 92% support.
- Race: There are substantial racial divides among voters in this race. Kemp, who is white, has 66%-25% support among white voters and 73%-27% support among Hispanic voters. Abrams, who would be the first Black governor of Georgia and the first Black woman to be a governor anywhere in the United States, has 83%-9% support among Black voters.