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Here's why AP and NBC are showing two different electoral results

The short answer: it depends on the source of who is calling the race.

ATLANTA — It's a question 11Alive's newsroom has been getting in the days after the election: why is there a difference in the number of electoral college votes across maps.

The short answer: it depends on the source of who is calling the race, and it likely hinges on whether that source has called Arizona for Biden.

For example, some newsrooms - like 11Alive's (which does not call races on our own) - rely on the Associated Press' count. (Here's their explanation for how they do it.)

In this case, the AP called the Arizona race in the early hours of the day after election day and projected Biden would take the state's 11 electoral votes, giving him total 264 electoral votes - and the lead in the race to 270 for the White House. It did so after the AP said an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded Trump could not catch up in the ballots left to be counted.

EXPLAINER: Why AP called Arizona for Joe Biden

However, many national newsrooms - like NBC News, CNN and others - have their own "decision desks" that have their own way to call races. Many of those newsrooms haven't called the Arizona race, meaning Biden's electoral county is at the 253 number.

Take a look at the graphic below. Note that Arizona is shaded blue on the AP projection map (top left) and not in the NBC projection map (bottom right).

Credit: TEGNA / WXIA

It's important to note, however, that in all of this, who won is only a projection. The actual winner can't really be known until all the votes are tallied and the election is certified by both local and state officials.

The Trump campaign said it is confident the president will overtake Biden when all votes in the state are tallied.

Arizona has a long political history of voting Republican. It’s the home state of Barry Goldwater, a five-term, conservative senator who was the Republican nominee for president in 1964. John McCain, the party’s 2008 presidential nominee, represented the state in Congress from 1983 until his 2018 death.

But changing demographics, including a fast-growing Latino population and a boom of new residents — some fleeing the skyrocketing cost of living in neighboring California — have made the state friendlier to Democrats.

Many of the gains have been driven by the shifting politics of Maricopa County, which is home to Phoenix and its suburbs. Maricopa County accounts for 60% of the state’s vote.

Material from the Associated Press appears in this report.

   

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