ATLANTA — With one week until the Georgia primary, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle is emerging as the favorite in the crowded Republican primary, according to an exclusive poll commissioned by 11Alive News and conducted by SurveyUSA. It's unclear, however, if Cagle will get enough votes to avoid a July run-off.
The poll, which was conducted on May 10 and released on Tuesday, shows Cagle with 35% of the votes in the Republican primary. That's more than double the second-place GOP candidate, Secretary of State Brian Kemp. (Full results below)
In the Democratic Primary, former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams had 43% of the vote, while Stacey Evans had 24%. Some 33% of Democratic voters said they were undecided.
FULL COVERAGE | Georgia Votes 2018
In the hypothetical November match-up, Cagle held a lead over Abrams in the hypothetical November match-up, 46% to 41%, with 14% of likely voters surveyed saying they were undecided.
However, Evans fared slightly better than Abrams against Cagle in the hypothetical match-up, according the poll, with 41% of likely voters saying they'd cast their vote for Evans (13% undecided).
Most of those polled (52%) said that Abrams' admitted $200,000 personal debt "makes no difference" in their vote. Some 35% of those polled said they were less likely to consider voting for her because of the debt.
POLL: Georgia governor's race
1. In the Republican primary for Georgia governor, how do you vote?
- 35% Casey Cagle
- 17% Brian Kemp
- 10% Hunter Hill
- 8% Clay Tippins
- 3% Michael Williams
- 27% Undecided
* Credibility Interval for this question = ± 5.1 percentage points.
2. In the Democratic primary for Georgia governor, how do you vote?
- 43% Stacey Abrams
- 24% Stacey Evans
- 33% Undecided
* Credibility Interval for this question = ± 6.2 percentage points.
3. If the November election for Georgia governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Casey Cagle and Democrat Stacey Abrams, who would you vote for?
- 46% Casey Cagle (R)
- 41% Stacey Abrams (D)
- 14% Undecided
* Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.
4. Now, what if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Casey Cagle and Democrat Stacey Evans, who would you vote for?
- 45% Casey Cagle (R)
- 41% Stacey Evans (D)
- 13% Undecided
* Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.
5. Stacey Abrams has discussed being more than $200,000 in debt. Does Stacey Abrams' debt make you ... more likely to consider voting for her? Less likely to consider voting for her? Or does it make no difference either way?
- 5% More Likely To Consider Voting For Her
- 35% Less Likely To Consider Voting For Her
- 52% Makes No Difference
- 8% Not Sure
* Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: 11Alive commissioned the scientific poll with SurveyUSA. They interviewed 2,875 state of GA adults 05/10/18 through 05/15/18. Of the adults, 2,339 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, 1,033 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 05/22/18 deadline. Of the likely primary voters, 558 chose a Republican primary ballot, 475 chose a Democratic primary ballot. Incumbent Republican Governor Nathan Deal is term-limited. If necessary, a run-off election would be 07/24/18.
