ATLANTA — Georgia's Senate runoff results will likely be very close, though unlike with the presidential election we should have a clearer idea of where things are headed on Election Night, an Emory political scientist said early Tuesday morning.
Emory professor Andra Gillespie told 11Alive Anchor Shiba Russell in an interview that we can expect "the margins are going to be pretty narrow."
"This race statistically is tied, and because of that, you know, we expect the margins are going to be pretty narrow," Gillespie said. "It's just a question of how narrow."
She noted that under Georgia election laws, we could be headed for recounts again if either race is within 0.5%.
Barring that, though, she said she thought with a lower turnout than the Nov. 3 election, it should be a little easier to provide clarity more quickly tonight.
"I would expect to have a clear sort of sense of where we're headed," by tonight, she said. "But maybe not enough to officially call the race. I think there is an outside chance we might have a clearer sense of what's going on, but all the early votes should be counted and reported tonight. It's just a question of how long it takes the absentee votes to come in, and with the slightly lower turnout it might take a little bit less time to count those absentee votes."
One possibility remains for dragging things out, which is a similar kind of legal strategy that was launched after President Trump's loss in Georgia.
"If one of the candidates perceives irregularities, I could see them raising types of objections," she said. "So it's just a question of whether or not they want to continue to litigate the results of the election."
One thing Gillespie said she didn't expect was the president's contentious phone call with Sec. of State Brad Raffensperger, which exploded into the news after a recording of it was released over the weekend, to have much of an effect in terms of swinging things.
"If we look at people who have already cast ballots, they can't change their vote one way or the other based on the call because it's already been cast," she said. "It's not like he hasn't pressured people to try to change the results of the elections in states before, so I think that a lot of these preferences are pretty baked into the cake."
The results on Tuesday will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate for the next four years. If one of the Republican incumbent Sens. Kelly Loeffler or David Perdue can win re-election, the GOP will retain its edge with at least 51 seats. If both Democrats win, it would create a 50-50 split and give power to the Joe Biden administration, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris holding the tiebreaker vote.