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Data shows that 2nd place finishers often win in Georgia runoff elections

Georgia history shows that runoffs are often good news for the second-place finisher.

ATLANTA — Some key races from Tuesday’s primary election are heading to runoffs on June 18.

Georgia history shows that this is often good news for the second-place finisher. United States Sen. Jon Ossoff embodies both the joy and heartache of Georgia’s runoff system.

In April 2017, Ossoff came achingly close to winning a special election for Congress -- winning 48.12% of the vote against 17 opponents.

But because he didn’t get 50% plus one vote, Ossoff faced a runoff against the second-place finisher, former Sec. of State Karen Handel.  

A month later, Handel flipped the vote and beat Ossoff. 51.78% to 48.22%.

Three years later, Ossoff took on incumbent Republican US Sen. David Perdue. 

Perdue came within a few thousand votes of winning 50% plus one, topping Ossoff 49.73% to 47.95%.

But he faced Ossoff in a runoff, and Perdue lost.

Georgia races heading to a runoff

These are cautionary tales for Lorraine Cochran Johnson – the top vote-getter (46.28%), facing a runoff in the DeKalb CEO race against Larry Johnson (34.36%).

Or in the Clayton County sheriff's race, where incumbent Levon Allen (49.15%) faces Jeff Turner (24.36%) after finishing 200 votes short of winning 50% plus one.

Or in the third congressional district, where Brian Jack won 46.7% of the vote but faces Mike Dugan (24.89%) in a runoff.   

Second-place finishers are often formidable in runoffs, Democratic strategist Tharon Johnson said.

"Historically, what we’ve seen is the second-place finisher – that person is usually able to gather up a lot of momentum," Johnson said.  "Particularly if it’s an incumbent who has been forced into a runoff."

The examples are seemingly endless. Brian Kemp became governor after finishing second in the Republican primary to Casey Cagle in 2018. Nathan Deal became governor after finishing second in the Republican primary to Karen Handel in 2010.

Johnson said all runoff candidates will be sweating the next month.

"It doesn’t matter so much the place where you finish," Johnson said. "It's how quickly can you get your money raised, get your team to focus on getting voters who did not vote for you back out, and you’ve got to turn back out  your base."

Voter turnout is also likely to drop for the June runoff.

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