ATLANTA — With 50 weeks until the votes are counted in the general election, red-state Georgia is very much in play according to an exclusive 11Alive poll administered by SurveyUSA.
Meanwhile, on the eve of the Democratic debate in Atlanta, former Vice President Joe Biden leads his nearest challenger 2-to-1 in the state of Georgia.
With impeachment hearings in the U.S. House of Representatives against Donald Trump underway and with new candidates still being added to the already crowded Democratic field, the contest for Georgia's 16 electoral votes, in hypothetical pairings, is closer than many would think.
SurveyUSA interviewed 1,900 Georgia adults between Nov. 15 and Nov. 28. Of the adults, 1,538 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 1,303 who are likely to vote in a general election for President.
The question asks: If there were a general election for President today, and there were only two names on the ballot, one being Donald Trump, who would you vote for.
- Joe Biden edges Trump, 47% to 43%.
- Bernie Sanders edges Trump, 47% to 44%, on the edge of the survey's error margin.
- Elizabeth Warren edges Trump by a statistically insignificant 1 percentage point, 46% to 45%.
- Trump edges Pete Buttigieg, 45% to 41%.
- Trump edges Kamala Harris, 46% to 43%, on the edge of the survey's error margin.
- Trump edges Michael Bloomberg by a statistically insignificant 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%.
Of the Democrats, Georgians polled fare this way:
- Joe Biden - 39%
- Bernie Sanders - 18%
- Elizabeth Warren - 14%
- Pete Buttigieg - 7%
- Kamala Harris - 7%
- Some other declared Democrat - 6%
If Michael Bloomberg were on the primary ballot in Georgia, those numbers shift ever-so-slightly. He takes 6 percent of the vote, while Biden goes down to 33 percent.
With 10 Democrats scheduled to appear on stage in Atlanta, Joe Biden alone gets 47 percent of Georgia's substantial African American vote. Among voters age 50+, Biden gets 47 percent of the vote, four times as much as his nearest challenger, Warren, and six times as much as Sanders.
Among Georgia's youngest likely Democratic primary voters, Sanders defeats Biden 2:1.
Among Georgia's independent voters, Trump leads narrowly in 2 match-ups and trails narrowly -- or is tied -- in 4 match-ups. Among self-identified moderates, Trump loses by more than 25 points against any Democrat. Among lower-income voters, Trump loses by 6 to 20 points, depending on which Democrat is nominated. Among upper-income voters, Trump wins by 14 to 20 points.
Protestants and Catholics in Georgia vote differently, according to the poll. Among Protestants, Trump leads by at least 23 points no matter which Democrat is nominated.
Among Catholics, Trump runs effectively even with Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Bloomberg, and leads Harris and Buttigieg by the narrowest margins.
Georgians who are members of some other religion or who are not a member of any organized religion, vote Democratic. Evangelicals back Trump by 2:1 or more regardless of who else is on the general election ballot.
Trump wins 5:3 in rural parts of Georgia, according to the survey; his Democratic opponents win by 2:1 or more in urban parts of the state. In suburban Georgia, Trump narrowly leads Harris, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg, narrowly trails Biden, and effectively ties Sanders and Warren.
Suburban women back Biden by an 8-point margin, Sanders by 6, and Warren by 5. Suburban men prefer Trump by 7 points against Harris and Buttigieg, by 5 points against Bloomberg and Warren. Suburban men split evenly if the Democratic nominee is Biden or Sanders.
POLL QUESTIONS/ANSWERS
Are you registered to vote in the state of Georgia?
- YES - 81%
- NO - 17%
- NOT SURE - 2%
Georgia will hold a Primary election for President of the United States next March. Thinking just about the PRIMARY... and NOT thinking ahead to the general election, Are you...? Certain to vote in the primary? Likely to vote in the primary? Or unlikely to vote in the primary?
- Certain - 73%
- Likely - 17%
- Unlikely - 5%
- Not sure - 6%
In the Georgia primary for President, are you certain to request a Democratic ballot? Certain to request a Republican ballot? Or are you not certain which ballot you will request?
- Democratic - 48%
- Republican - 41%
- Not certain - 11%
If the Democratic primary for President were today, who would you vote for? [Candidate names rotated]
- Joe Biden - 39%
- Elizabeth Warren - 14%
- Bernie Sanders - 18%
- Pete Buttigieg - 7%
- Kamala Harris - 7%
- Another Democrat - 6%
- Undecided - 10%
Michael Bloomberg has not yet declared officially that he will run for President as a Democrat, but he has filed to be on the Presidential primary ballot as a Democrat in certain states. If Michael Bloomberg announced today that he is running for President as a Democrat, which one of these Democrats would you vote for in the Democratic primary? [Candidate names rotated]
- Michael Bloomberg - 6%
- Joe Biden - 36%
- Elizabeth Warren - 14%
- Bernie Sanders - 17%
- Pete Buttigieg - 7%
- Kamala Harris - 6%
- Another Democrat - 5%
- Undecided - 10%
Thinking ahead now to the November 2020 general election for President. Are you certain to vote in the November 2020 election for President? Likely to vote? Or unlikely to vote?
- Certain to vote - 85%
- Likely to vote - 11%
- Unlikely to vote - 2%
- Not sure - 3%
If there were a general election for President today, and the only 2 names on the ballot were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?
- Donald Trump - 43%
- Joe Biden - 47%
- Undecided - 10%
If there were a general election for President today, and the only 2 names on the ballot were Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?
- Donald Trump - 45%
- Elizabeth Warren - 46%
- Undecided - 9%
If there were a general election for President today, and the only 2 names on the ballot were Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, who would you vote for?
- Donald Trump - 44%
- Bernie Sanders - 47%
- Undecided - 9%
If there were a general election for President today, and the only 2 names on the ballot were Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg, who would you vote for?
- Donald Trump - 45%
- Pete Buttigieg - 41%
- Undecided - 14%
If there were a general election for President today, and the only 2 names on the ballot were Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who would you vote for?
- Donald Trump - 46%
- Kamala Harris - 43%
- Undecided - 11%
If there were a general election for President today, and the only 2 names on the ballot were Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg, who would you vote for?
- Donald Trump - 44%
- Michael Bloomberg - 42%
- Undecided - 14%