ATLANTA — Sen. Raphael Warnock maintains a solid, though potentially shrinking lead over Herschel Walker as Election Day nears, a new 11Alive poll indicates.
The poll shows Warnock ahead in the Georgia Senate race 49-43%, with Libertarian Chase Oliver at 3% and 5% still undecided. If no candidate reaches 50% +1, there will be a runoff.
The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA for 11Alive from Oct. 29-Nov. 2 among 1,171 likely November Georgia voters.
The poll is far closer than the last one conducted in early October, which had Warnock ahead by 12 points. The narrowing gap between the candidates tracks with other polling done in recent days, which has see-sawed between showing both candidates with varying leads - after Warnock consistently polled ahead by a handful of points through most of the summer.
The RealClearPolitics average now places Walker, the Republican challenger, ahead by half a point.
11Alive's previous poll suggested one of the main things Walker needed to do was win over members of his own party who might be reluctant to support him - and the newest poll suggests he has done so, at least to some extent.
In our last poll, Walker had the support of just 75% of Republican respondents. In our newest poll, that number is 84%.
However, some indicators still suggest a substantial uphill climb against Warnock: The Democratic incumbent has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 40/43%, while Walker is at 30% favorable with exactly half of all respondents (50%) giving him an unfavorable rating. That net favorability figure of minus-20 is up three from last month, while Warnock's is down six from plus-3 last month.
Full 11Alive Georgia Senate poll result
- 1,171 likely November Georgia voters
- margin of error 3.7%
- 53% female, 47% male
- 61% white, 29% Black, 5% Hispanic, 5% Asian or other
- 42% Republican, 41% Democrat, 15% Independent
Question: If the November election for United States Senator from Georgia were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
- Herschel Walker (R): 43%
- Raphael Warnock (D): 49%
- Chase Oliver (L): 3%
- Undecided: 5%
Full 11Alive favorability poll result
- 1,507 registered voters
- Margin of error 3.6%
- 53% female, 47% male
- 58% white, 29% Black, 8% Hispanic, 5% Asian or other
- 41% Republican, 38% Democrat, 17% Independent
Question: What is your overall opinion of Herschel Walker?
- Favorable: 30%
- Unfavorable: 50%
- Neutral: 15%
- No opinion: 6%
Question: What is your overall opinion of Raphael Warnock?
- Favorable: 40%
- Unfavorable: 43%
- Neutral: 13%
- No opinion: 4%
Additional insights
- Warnock still getting some crossover support: Among likely Brian Kemp voters who responded to the poll, the Democrat received 11% support. Walker, meanwhile, received just 2% of support from likely Stacey Abrams voters. Warnock also leads Walker among self-identifying independents 44-37% - that same group in this poll supported Gov. Brian Kemp 54-39%. Libertarian Chase Oliver pulled in some support (11%) among independents.
- Conservatives coming around for Walker: This will be key for the Republican. In our previous poll, 74% of self-identifying "very conservative" voters gave him support and 69% of self-identifying "conservative" voters supported him. Those numbers improved in this poll to 84% and 72%.
- Voters to be activated for Warnock: Among those who said they were "probably" going to vote, rather than 100% certain or who already had voted, Warnock led substantially 51-31%. He also led 53-45% among those who said they had already voted and 47-46% among those who said they were certain to vote.
- Racial breakdown: In our poll, Warnock won the support of Black voters 89-7%, Hispanic voters 43-42% and voters who identified their race as Asian or other 67-22%. White voters preferred Walker 61-29%.
- Gender breakdown: The male vote was split 46-46%. Female voters gave strong support to Warnock in this poll, at 52-40%. Walker has faced allegations during the campaign that he urged or pressured past girlfriends to have abortions, though he himself is adamantly anti-abortion. He has denied the allegations and called them lies, threatening lawsuits over them.
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