ATLANTA — Election Day is on Tuesday, and voters who are going to be casting their ballots will probably do so with an umbrella in hand.
The storms moving through Georgia on Nov. 6 have the potential to produce severe weather in the early morning hours and showers throughout the afternoon. Projections show the weather drying out for the second half of election day and early Wednesday.
Georgia voters stand in long lines to cast ballots
We wanted to see if rain had any real impact on voter turnout in Georgia elections.
11Alive Meteorologist Wes Perry went back 50 years to see how many times it has rained on Election Day in Atlanta. In 50 years since 1989, only about 19 times has it rained on Election Day. That boils down to about 38 percent overall.
The wettest day was in 2012 when rainfall totaled 1.77 inches.
Election years when the president is decided typically have higher voter turnout regardless of weather. Because of that, we compared presidential years separately from non-presidential years.
READ | Georgia voter guide 2018
PRESIDENTIAL YEARS
2004 – Bush's second presidential win – 1.77 inches of rain
79.25% voter turnout
2008 – Obama’s first presidential win – no rain
76.75% voter turnout
2012 – Obama's second presidential win – 1.25 inches of rain
72.75% voter turnout
2016 – Trump's presidential win – no rain
61.69% voter turnout
The data suggests that rain does not negatively impact voter turnout in Georgia since on election days wet and dry, voters showed up.
NON-PRESIDENTIAL YEARS
2002 – 1.53 inches of rain
56.26% voter turnout
2006 - .76 inches of rain
48% voter turnout
2010 – Gov. Deal’s first win - no rain
53.25% voter turnout
2014 – Gov. Deal’s second win - no rain
42.44% voter turnout
This data also suggests that rain does not negatively impact voter turnout in Georgia since on election days wet and dry, voters showed up.
The real trend is that since 2004, voter turnout in Georgia has been decreasing despite the forecast.
WHO BENEFITS ON RAINY ELECTION DAYS
Studies point to rainy election days favoring one party over the other.
USA TODAY reports that a recent study revealed that at least 1 percent of voting age adults in the U.S. – people who would have voted for a Democrat had the weather been good – decided instead to cast their ballot for a Republican on rainy election days.
“Our study suggests that weather conditions may affect people’s decisions on not only whether to vote, but also who they vote for,” said study co-author Yusaku Horiuchi, a professor of government at Dartmouth College.
"Contrary to the widely shared belief that weather conditions do not change voters’ electoral decisions," the study said, "our analysis suggests that it is likely that a certain proportion of American voters would change their party preference depending on weather."
Apparently on Election Day, rain heightens pessimism and increases fears of risk: "Those who feel in an upbeat mood may lean toward the riskier candidate, while those who feel depressed and anxious lean toward the safer candidate," the study said.
Thus, "the choice for risk-averse people is to vote Republican," Horiuchi said.
The study appeared in December 2017 in the journal American Politics Research.
This report expands on previous research that also said Republicans should hope for a soggy Election Day. In a 2007 study, researchers found that for every inch of rain above the average for the day, the Republican presidential candidate received roughly an extra 2.5 percent of the vote.
That 2007 study said it was in part because the extra cost of traveling to the polls on a rainy or snowy day decreases Democratic voter turnout and increases Republican turnout.
