ATLANTA — Georgia's 2022 Senate race is shaping up as a close one in which incumbent Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock holds an edge of retaining his Senate seat, a new 11Alive poll shows.
The poll surveyed nearly 1,300 likely November general election voters in Georgia between April 22-27.
It reveals that, at least as of right now, Warnock enjoys an advantage over Republican rival Herschel Walker that would be greater than his 2% victory over Kelly Loeffler in the 2021 runoff that catapulted Warnock into the Senate.
Here's a look at how it breaks down:
Raphael Warnock vs. Herschel Walker
This is quickly becoming the presumptive race for Georgia in November.
Walker, the former University of Georgia football star, must still advance out of a primary in May, but additional polling that you can review below shows that his lead over a small field of contenders is substantial.
11Alive's poll shows that, among the likely November voters surveyed, Warnock maintains a 5% advantage.
The full result is below:
If the November election for United States Senator from Georgia were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
- Herschel Walker - 45%
- Raphael Warnock - 50%
- Undecided - 5%
The margin of error is 3.4%.
11Alive's poll result is the strongest yet for Warnock among several published this year pitting him against Walker. The RealClearPolitics average gives Walker a 1.6-point edge, and three other polls published since January have had the Republican leading by anywhere from 1 to 4 points.
Walker enjoys the vocal backing of former President Donald Trump, which in part has helped him establish a major lead in the GOP primary. But that may not be to his advantage in a general election - independents favor Warnock in 11Alive's polling by a 49% to 43% margin, while in the same poll those voters back Georgia's current Republican Gov. Brian Kemp 45% to 42% over Democrat Stacey Abrams.
Self-identifying conservatives, who made up 44% of poll respondents, favor Walker 75% to 19% over Warnock - again lagging behind Kemp's polling at 80% to17% against Abrams. Self-identifying "moderate" voters - 32% of respondents - favor Warnock 63% to 30%. That same group supports Abrams, as well, but by less of a margin - 55% to 37%.
Black voters favor Warnock - the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Martin Luther King Jr. preached - 90-8%, while white voters favor Walker 65-28%.
Hispanic voters are split slightly in Warnock's favor, 48-46%. That group favored Kemp in this polling, 49-45%.
Perhaps most surprisingly, the polling suggests 2020 Trump voters have not fully gotten on board with Walker's campaign - they give Walker an 84-9% advantage over Warnock, but 7% of those voters report they remain undecided. By contrast, Gov. Kemp leads Abrams 90-7% among Trump voters, with just 4% undecided.
Those may seem like small differences but could loom large if, as in 2021, the race is decided by just a couple of percentage points.
GOP Primary
This race appears as if it is largely settled.
Though there are several other formidable candidates who are generally well-known in state political circles, such as state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, Cobb businessman Kelvin King and former Navy SEAL and Trump administration official Latham Saddler, none have been able to break through against Walker's name recognition as a Trump favorite and UGA football legend.
According to 11Alive's primary polling, Walker enjoys better than 60% support for the primary - slightly better than his RealClearPolitics average, which is just shy of 56%.
Though he underperforms against Warnock in 11Alive's poll relative to other recent polls, he actually overperforms against the Republican primary field relative to other polling.
The full results:
If you were filling out your Republican primary ballot for United States Senate today, who would you vote for?
- Gary Black - 6%
- Josh Clark - 3%
- Kelvin King - 2%
- Jonathan McColumn - 2%
- Latham Saddler - 3%
- Herschel Walker - 62%
- Undecided - 21%