With UGA quarterback/soon-to-be transfer Justin Fields officially in the NCAA Portal database, essentially giving other schools the chance to re-recruit the Kennesaw native in the coming weeks, let's take the next step in this speculative game:
Here's a list of potential destinations and no-go mirages for the former 5-star prospect (No. 1 dual-threat QB for the Class of 2018), who likely needs to nail this life-changing decision, in terms of bolstering his college legacy and eventual NFL draft stock.
After all, you don't see too many prominent NFL quarterbacks that attended three or more schools during their college days.
Let's see, there's Cam Newton (Florida, JUCO, Auburn) ... and that may be it with the modern passing era.
WHERE DID FIELDS GO WRONG?
The above question seems a little harsh on the surface, since Fields represents neither the first nor last 5-star stud to stay close to home with his original college choice.
At the same time, last winter, surely Fields had to know it would be an uphill climb to an immediate starting spot, since Jake Fromm (Rivals' No. 3 pro-style QB from 2017) had just completed a fantastic freshman campaign of 2,615 yards passing and 24 touchdowns, while leading the Bulldogs to an SEC championship, the Rose Bowl title and the gut-wrenching brink of a national title (losing to Alabama in overtime).
Throw in Fields' apparent lack of patience for substantial playing time, and this had all the makings of a failed experiment from the get-go.
As such, perhaps this experience will be a good lesson to head coach Kirby Smart and the UGA coaches:
Unlike tailbacks, receivers, linebackers and offensive/defensive linemen, signing 4- or 5-star quarterbacks in back-to-back (or even back-to-back-to-back) recruiting classes won't be a sustainable model.
(The Bulldogs are on the verge of losing Jacob Eason, who's slated to be Washington's quarterback next year, and the aforementioned Fields in the span of 11 months.)
Sure, you might get lucky with the yin-yang dynamics of Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa (Heisman finalist) and Jalen Hurts (SEC title game hero); but for the most part, it's a bad move to awkwardly stockpile elite-level quarterbacks, citing three reasons:
a) It could create a layer of bitterness or resentment with the established starting quarterback and the coaching staff.
b) It forces the team's playmakers and O-linemen to choose sides, when multiple high-end options are commanding equal time at the quarterback slot.
c) It has the potential to scare off future QB prospects, at least those entering the high-stakes recruiting process with Eyes Wide Open.
What does that mean? Simple.
College coaches might be great leaders of men, but they're also born with that Used Car Salesman gene ... in terms of saying everything and doing anything to get the coveted recruit in the door.
And once that player signs on the dotted line, they're quickly treated like the rest of the herd of scholarship assets.
Which brings us to this ...
THE SEVEN DETERMINING FACTORS OF FIELDS' HAPPINESS
The 19-year-old Fields doesn't need to hit on all seven prerequisites listed below.
However, any number less than '6' would put him at risk of repeating the same obstacles/hindrances/frustrations that occasionally boiled to the surface in Athens.
So, choose wisely here, Justin.
As mentioned above, NFL teams rarely fall in love with carpetbagging quarterbacks at the college level.
THE CHECKLIST
1) Pro-style offense
2) Winning tradition
3) A head coach with staying power
4) Solid track record of program quarterbacks reaching the NFL|
5) No established freshmen or sophomores at quarterback
6) No 5-star verbal commitments, among QBs, from the Class of 2020
7) No 4- or 5-star quarterbacks with the 2019 recruiting class
THE ELIMINATION ROUND–GROUP A
Clemson (QB hurdles: Trevor Lawrence/Taisun Phommachanh)
Alabama (QB hurdles: Tua Tagovailoa/Paul Tyson/Taulia Tagovailoa)
Penn State (QBs: Sean Clifford/Michael Johnson Jr./Ta'Quan Roberson)
Ohio State (QB hurdles: Tate Martell/Jack Miller)
Michigan (QB hurdles: Dylan McCaffrey/Cade McNamara)|
USC (QB hurdles: J.T. Daniels/Jack Sears/Bryce Young)
Texas (QB hurdles: Sam Ehlinger/Hudson Card/Roschon Johnson)
Oregon (QB hurdles: Tyler Shough/Braxton Burmeister)
South Carolina (Luke Doty/Ryan Hilinski)
Texas A&M (Kellen Mond)
Oklahoma (Spencer Rattler)
Florida State (James Blackman)
Tennessee (Harrison Bailey)
Notre Dame (Phil Jurkovec/Drew Pyne)
SKINNY
1. The above listing covers firmly entrenched with freshman/sophomore passing stars ... or those on the potential brink of greatness (Class of 2019 or 2020 studs).
Does that mean Fields (6-foot-3, 230 pounds) wouldn't have the requisite size, speed or physical makeup (often draws comparisons to a young Cam Newton) to beat out the above quarterbacks during spring camp ... or the regular season?
Absolutely not; but as we've learned with Fromm vs. Fields, it might not a gamble worth taking.
2. It's amazing how Clemson, Alabama, Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan can all be loaded with 4- and 5-star quarterbacks, at roughly the same level of education.
Do the math, though.
Regardless of how amazing these student-athletes seemed in high school ... their odds of disappointing in college are surprisingly high, thanks to the lack of quarterback rotations among the Power 5 conferences.
As a remedy for that, why not just attend a slightly lesser school, but one that offers fewer competition along the depth chart?
After all, this isn't 1976 anymore. If you have prodigious talent or immense promise in college, regardless of the level of play, NFL scouts will find you.
3. Texas A&M and Oklahoma would be amazing destinations for Fields, assuming guarantees of a starting slot for 2019 (should the NCAA approve a 'hardship' waiver) or 2020 (after sitting out one 'transfer' year).
But that only sounds great on paper.
The reason?
A&M sophomore Kellen Mond (29 TDs for the Aggies) and incoming Oklahoma freshman Spencer Rattler (the nation's top-ranked dual-threat QB) could be major fixtures with College Football Nation for at least three years.
4. As reported on TEGNA earlier in the day, Ohio State has quickly emerged as the favorite to land Fields.
Here's the flaw in this reasoning:
a) There are whispers that third-year sophomore Dwayne Haskins (4,580 yards passing, 51 total TDs, 70.2-percent completion rate) will return to school next year.
If that's the case, Fields' special waiver for playing right away would be a moot point.
Short of a Haskins injury.
b) With Rivals.com, Tate Martell was hailed as the No. 2-ranked dual-threat quarterback for the Class of 2018.
You know which current college superstar ranked No. 3 in the same survey?
c) New Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day already has commitments from a pair of 4-star quarterbacks (Dwan Mathis/Jack Miller).
UPDATE: In a stunning turn of events on Wednesday, Dwan Mathis, the No. 2-ranked dual-threat QB with Rivals.com, flipped his commitment from Ohio State to Georgia.
THE ELIMINATION ROUND–GROUP B
Stanford (QB hurdle: Davis Mills)
Northwestern (Hunter Johnson)
Indiana (Jack Tuttle)
Auburn (Bo Nix)
Wisconsin (Graham Mertz)
Maryland (Kasim Hill)
Washington (Dylan Morris)
Baylor (Jacob Zeno)
Boise State (Hank Bachmeier)
TCU (Max Duggan)
Mississippi State (Garrett Shrader)
Arkansas (K.J. Jefferson)
UCF (Darriel Mack Jr.)
NON-PRACTICAL CANDIDATES
LSU (not feasible to make in-conference jump)
Kentucky (that goes double within the SEC East)
Washington State (weather and distance from home would be factors)
Georgia Tech (guessing it'd be a cold day in you-know-where before …)
UCLA (shaky Chip Kelly isn't a lock to be in Westwood two years from now)
Texas Tech (Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes started here in 2013 and '14, respectively)
SEVEN SCHOOLS FIELDS SHOULD GENUINELY TARGET
1) MIAMI
SKINNY: Yes, we're aware of the potential irony of Fields joining forces with Mark Richt, the longtime UGA head coach.
That aside, N'Kosi Perry had a productive freshman campaign (14 total TDs), but could he match Fields' physical tools/hunger to dominate?
2) IOWA
SKINNY: The Hawkeyes run and pro-style offense and superbly recruit NFL-worthy talent in three key areas: Offensive line, running back and tight end.
This would be a great boon to Fields' chances of flourishing against top-notch competition in the Big Ten. (Staying upright's half the battle.)
On the down side, quarterback Nate Stanley (think Brett Favre Lite) will return for his senior campaign ... which would likely curtail Fields' chances of hitting the field in 2019 (based on NCAA approval).
The runway would be clear for takeoff in 2020, though.
3) PURDUE
SKINNY: Jeff Brohm stands out as one of the country's greatest quarterback whisperers. Fields would be an absolute dynamo in Purdue's high-octane offense, with likely two years of connecting with all-everything receiver Rondale Moore (103 catches, 1,164 yards, 12 TDs as a true freshman).
4) MICHIGAN STATE
SKINNY: Michigan State currently enjoys the second-highest tally of active NFL quarterbacks (4–Kirk Cousins, Connor Cook, Drew Stanton, Brian Hoyer).
The Spartans are also in desperate need of a 'franchise' quarterback to revive a suddenly dormant offense.
Sorry, Rocky Lombardi fans.
5) WEST VIRGINIA
SKINNY: Will Grier (3,864 yards passing, 37 TDs, 67-percent completion rate) has already left the program to focus on his NFL stock.
That leaves the door wide open for Jack Allison ... or a high-upside outsider (like Fields) to assume control of Dana Holgorsen's unstoppable offense (42.3 points per game this season).
6) CALIFORNIA
SKINNY: It comes down to this within Pac-12 circles: Head coach Justin Wilcox has more short- and long-term appeal than UCLA's Chip Kelly.
The only down side: Cal's Chase Garbers (4-star prospect from 2017 ... 1,413 yards passing, 15 total TDs) showed some cool flashes as a freshman.
7) COLORADO
SKINNY: This suggestion comes from former UGA quarterback Hutson Mason, who believes Fields would be extremely comfortable with the 'Athens West' ambience of Colorado, in the wake of former Dawgs D-coordinator Mel Tucker taking the program reins.
For good measure, the Buffaloes' biggest rival, Colorado State, has a head coach with deep UGA ties–former Bulldogs quarterback and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo.