ATLANTA — 11Alive Sports takes a fifth stab at predicting the matchups for every major bowl in college football, along with the next-tier games involving various SEC programs.
Here comes the caveat: The following projections aren't necessarily based on which teams are currently killing it in the Associated Press and Coaches Poll rankings.
It's merely an educated guess of how things will shake out over the next three Saturdays.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF–SEMIFINALS
COTTON: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Michigan
ORANGE: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
BREAKDOWN
Here's my rationale for how this quartet comes together on Dec. 29 (Cotton and Orange bowls):
1) Top-ranked Alabama marches through the regular season with a perfect record, which shall include a home rout of Auburn in the Iron Bowl (Nov. 24) and hard-fought victory over Georgia in the SEC title game.
2) In previous projections, we had Notre Dame losing to USC on Thanksgiving Saturday; and while the Trojans certainly have enough blue-chip talent to rise up and bring the heat for one day ... it's hard to envision Southern California dominating Notre Dame in any phase.
Stranger things have happened on Turkey Day weekend, though.
In fact, given the recent events, some national pundits might view Notre Dame's upcoming Yankee Stadium-based showdown with No. 12 Syracuse (swing and a miss on the uniform choice) as the biggest remaining hurdle to making the four-team Playoff.
3) Unblemished Clemson runs the seasonal table, as well, taking down South Carolina (next Saturday) and dispensing of a so-so opponent in the ACC title game (likely Pitt).
4) Michigan doesn't buckle from the pressure of being the Big Ten's greatest hope for making the Playoff.
Check that, make U-M the only realistic hope for the national semifinals.
The rationale: Even if Ohio State upends Michigan next week in Columbus, the proverbial 'bump' of potentially beating Northwestern for the Big Ten championship would have a minimal impact.
Bottom line: Ohio State needs to win out, hope that West Virginia/Oklahoma split the two-game series over the next few weeks and then prayyyyyy for red-hot Washington State to fall at some point.
And should these wishes fall into place ... there's still no guarantee of the Playoff committee taking OSU over a two-loss Georgia squad—if the Dawgs give the Crimson Tide the fight of their seasonal lives.
In other words, the Big Ten needs Michigan to be the unfettered champ.
5) Check out this amazing stat, courtesy of our friends at ESPN:
Charting the initial Playoff rankings release from 2014-17, the inaugural No. 3 seed never reached the CFP semifinals for that year.
And guess which program held the first No. 3 ranking of this season?
L-S-U!
Light-mocking aside, the Tigers certainly have a fine resume for Playoff consideration, knocking off Auburn, Miami and Georgia when all three programs were ranked in the AP Top 10.
However, without a conference championship on the mantle, the CFP committee would most likely look elsewhere for the final slot.
(Very similar to Auburn last year.)
6) Undefeated UCF (No. 11 in the latest Playoff rankings) has no margin of error moving forward: The Knights must win out by double-digit points for the next three Saturdays (style points matter) ... and then genuinely hope for the following scenarios:
**Alabama routs Georgia in the SEC title game.
**Michigan falls to Ohio State ... and the Buckeyes, in turn, look sluggish in defeating Northwestern for the Big Ten championship.
**West Virginia and Oklahoma split the likely two-game series (season finale/Big 12 title game).
**Washington State falls to either Washington (season finale) or Utah/Arizona/Arizona State for the Pac-12 championship.
**LSU gets squashed by Texas A&M next weekend.
On the plus side, UCF should have three quality opponents on the imminent docket: No. 24 Cincinnati (home), South Florida (road) and then maybe Houston in the American Athletic title game.
NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWLS PROJECTION
ROSE: Ohio State vs. Washington State
SUGAR: Georgia vs. West Virginia
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. UCF
PEACH: LSU vs. Penn State
SEC-AFFILIATED BOWL PROJECTIONS
CITRUS: Kentucky vs. Syracuse
OUTBACK: Florida vs. Northwestern
TAXSLAYER: Texas A&M vs. Iowa State
LIBERTY: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech
BELK: South Carolina vs. Boston College
MUSIC CITY: Auburn vs. Miami
INDEPENDENCE: South Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
BIRMINGHAM: Missouri vs. Memphis
