We all know the deal here.
If UGA rolls through Georgia Tech (UPDATE: Bulldogs won 45-21) and top-ranked Alabama over the next eight days, the Dawgs (No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings) will garner an easy-peasy berth into the national semifinals.
(The Orange and Cotton bowls will host this year's four-team Playoff.)
So, in that vein, we're not going to waste anyone's time with elementary nuggets. UGA has been controlling its own destiny since the Bulldogs notched top-10 victories over Florida and Kentucky in successive weeks.
Instead, as a lark, we'll adopt a chaos-theory mindset, in terms of making Georgia a Playoff participant ... as a two-loss team.
Here are the six most plausible occurrences surrounding UGA's campaign as a two-loss factor.
Thinking conservatively, at least five of the hypotheticals must become reality.
And just for kicks, we'll presume that Alabama, Clemson and UCF remain unbeaten over the final two weekends.
NOTE: We'll include a Plausibility Scale with each hypothetical, ranking the presumptions from 1 (low probability of occurrence) to 5 (high probability of occurrence).
CHAOS THEORY TIMELINE
STEP 1
FRIDAY: No. 8 Washington State loses the Apple Cup clash with No. 16 Washington.
PLAUSIBILITY SCALE: 4
FUN FACT
Washington has dominated the five-year cycle against Wazzu, with the Huskies enjoying an average victory margin of 23.6 points (2013-17).
**UPDATE: U-Dub toppled Washington State amid blustery blizzard conditions on Friday. As a result, the Huskies—and not the higher-ranked Cougars—are headed for the Pac-12 title game.**
STEP 2
FRIDAY/NEXT WEEK: No. 6 Oklahoma falls to either West Virginia (season finale) or Texas (Big 12 title game).
PLAUSIBILITY SCALE: 5
FUN FACT I
The Sooners have maintained their elite-level ranking throughout the season, despite surrendering 40-plus points in four of their last six outings.
FUN FACT II
No. 13 West Virginia has scored 35 points in nine of its previous 10 games, with the lone blemish coming against Iowa State on the road.
**UPDATE: Oklahoma outlasted West Virginia in one of the craziest big games of the year, leaving Morgantown with a 59-56 victory. Up next: The Sooners can exact revenge for their only loss of the season (Texas) in the Big 12 championship bout.**
STEP 3
SATURDAY: No. 4 Michigan loses to No. 10 Ohio State, enabling the Buckeyes to claim the Big Ten East crown.
PLAUSIBILITY SCALE: 4
**UPDATE: The Wolverines fell behind early and eventually got shredded by the sky-high Buckeyes. The final from Columbus: Ohio State wins, 62-39. As such, it'll be OSU and Northwestern for the Big Ten title.**
FUN FACT I
Eighteen years have elapsed since Michigan last won in Columbus.
How long ago was that?
**At the time, Wolverines QB Drew Henson was being hailed as the No. 1 overall pick in the following year's draft ... should he choose football over baseball.
(Spoiler alert: Henson never materialized as an elite-level quarterback or third baseman at the pro level.)
**The sports world, outside of those living in northeast Ohio, hadn't heard of LeBron James (fall of 2000).
FUN FACT II
Since 2001, the Buckeyes own a 15-2 edge over the Wolverines; and during this dominant stretch, Ohio State possessed a top-10 ranking 13 times (leading into The Game).
STEP 4
SATURDAY: No. 3 Notre Dame squanders its golden Playoff opportunity and loses to USC ... seriously.
PLAUSIBILITY SCALE: 2
**UPDATE: The Fighting Irish rallied from a 10-0 hole in the first half ... to pull out a 24-17 victory. As such, Notre Dame has a 99.9999999999 percent chance of reaching the four-team Playoff.**
A QUICK RATIONALIZATION
Back in September, a USC-over-ND upset certainly had merit, factoring in the Trojans' advantages with homefield and revenge (citing last year's blowout defeat).
However, things have gone sideways for Southern Cal since the late summer, with the Trojans incurring four losses (Utah, Arizona State, Cal, UCLA) in their last five games.
Granted, three defeats had a final spread of seven or fewer points; but still, it's hard to spin positives from losing to an awful UCLA squad.
How bad? Back in early October, the Bruins were decent bets to go 0-12 in Chip Kelly's first year at the helm.
Which brings us to this: It would be shocking if USC upends Notre Dame on Saturday; but then again, the Trojans recruit extremely well along the West Coast.
They certainly have the athleticism to compete with the No. 3 Irish ... at least for a full half.
STEP 5
SATURDAY: No. 7 LSU incurs a third seasonal defeat, falling to No. 22 Texas A&M on the road.
PLAUSIBILITY SCALE: 4
**UPDATE: LSU lost to Texas A&M ... but it took seven overtimes to become official. Bulldogs fans should be elated at the result.**
WHY THIS MATTERS
If UGA and LSU have two losses apiece at the end of the regular season, the Playoff committee would almost certainly side with the Tigers, based on their head-to-head victory from mid-October.
STEP 6
NEXT WEEK: UGA posts a highly competitive loss to Alabama in the SEC title game, perhaps squandering a fourth-quarter lead.
PLAUSIBILITY SCALE: 2
Do you recall Alabama's closest victory this season?
In late September, Texas A&M scored a late touchdown to bring the final score to a respectable 45-23; and seven weeks later, Mississippi State looked damn good in its shutout defeat to the vaunted Tide.
Consequently, if UGA can put a viable scare into Alabama for at least three quarters ... the Playoff committee might hold such an effort in the highest regard.
ONE FINAL CONSIDERATION
With UCF losing quarterback McKenzie Milton to a gruesome injury on Friday, the Knights should now be viewed as prohibitive long shots to reach the Playoff.
Regardless of win-loss record.
As such, this leaves Alabama, Clemson and two surprise openings for the final slots–at least under our above hypothetical.
Does Georgia have the resume to prevail in a 'Chaos Theory' situation? Absolutely.
Here's why:
**The Dawgs boast convincing victories over Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina, Missouri and Tennessee. Plus, losses to Alabama and LSU likely wouldn't be a major deterrent.
**Looking at the other Power 5 championship games ...
Washington/Washington State (vs. Utah), Michigan/Ohio State (vs. Northwestern) or Texas/Oklahoma/West Virginia might not warrant big-time 'bumps' for capturing conference titles.
Of course, none of this will mean anything, if the elite cluster of Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan take care of business.
