11Alive Sports reveals its Confidence Pool picks for the 39 college bowls played between Dec. 15 and Jan. 1—excluding the College Football Playoff title game (semifinals: Oklahoma-Alabama winner vs. Notre Dame-Clemson winner).
How do confidence pools work? Simple.
Each prospective bowl victor will be assigned an exclusive number, ranging from '39' (high expectancy of winning) to '1' (low expectancy of winning).
In essence, it's not just a straight-up game of picking winners. Contestants must accurately predict a victor ... and then deal with the consequences of how they cultivated the 1-39 listing.
The dual purpose here: For starters, we love to walk the plank of potential embarrassment. Also, this piece should help office workers throughout the country nail down their Confidence Pool sheets before Saturday at noon.
Here's our bowl-confidence picks, ranging from high to low certainty:
(Point spreads courtesy of VegasInsiders.com)
BET THE FARM
ORANGE: Alabama (-14) over Oklahoma (confidence: 39)
CITRUS: Penn State (-6.5) over Kentucky
OBSERVATIONS
a) Kyler Murray may have captured the Heisman Trophy, but there's a steep price to pay for the mini-upset (over Tide QB Tua Tagovailoa), in the form of Oklahoma commanding Alabama's full attention on Semifinal Saturday.
The point spread's a tad high ... but the Crimson Tide still remain the surest bet of the bowl season.
b) Penn State has a diverse, explosive and athletically gifted offense—just like Georgia; and we saw how that worked out for Kentucky.
The Wildcats had a banner year, no doubt, but this has the makings of an ugly matchup.
IT'S GONNA HAPPEN
ROSE: Ohio State (-6.5) over Washington (confidence: 37)
SUGAR: UGA (-11.5) over Texas
LIBERTY: Missouri (-8) over Oklahoma State
MILITARY: Cincinnati (-5) over Virginia Tech
BIRMINGHAM: Memphis (-4) over Wake Forest
OBSERVATIONS
a) Washington matches up well with Ohio State, so much that a 6 1/2-point betting line reeks of initial disrespect.
However, you cannot beat the intangible 'bump' of the Buckeyes going all-out for Urban Meyer, ensuring the retiring coach (at least until 2020) finishes on the highest of high notes.
Yep, this one has O-H-I-O written all over it.
b) If Georgia and Texas played during the regular season 10 times, the Dawgs would likely prevail on nine occasions.
On the flip side, it's impossible to know how the crestfallen UGA players and coaches will respond to playing in a major bowl ... without any playoff-worthy payoff.
Plus, if we've learned anything about recent Sugar Bowl history ... the SEC 'Non-Championship Hangover' is real.
(Has Trevor Knight called pop star Katy Perry yet?)
c) This old Big 12 matchup looks great on paper. However, here's a fun factoid for those assuming the 'over' with Missouri-Oklahoma State (betting line: 74):
Charting their last five games, the suddenly stingy Tigers defense has held the opposition to porous averages of 15.6 points.
On the flip side, good luck to Oklahoma State holding Mizzou to less than four touchdowns.
d) The Cincinnati-Virginia Tech game would rate higher in this category, if the Hokies didn't have the home-area advantage (nearby Annapolis).
The Bearcats have been consistently strong on defense ... and the two road defeats (Temple, UCF) were eminently forgivable.
e) How did Wake Forest beat Duke by 52 points last month?
The Demon Deacons were awful midway through the season ... before rallying for two impressive road victories to close the regular season (NC State, Duke).
The Duke uprising aside, it's hard to envision Wake keeping Memphis' explosive offense to fewer than 34 points a week from Saturday.
That'll be hard to beat.
TRUST THE VEGAS WISE GUYS
ALAMO: Washington State (-3.5) over Iowa State (confidence: 32)
QUICKLANE: Georgia Tech (-5.5) over Minnesota
BELK: South Carolina (-4) over Virginia
PINSTRIPE: Miami (-4) over Wisconsin
ARIZONA: Arkansas State (-1.5) over Nevada
OBSERVATIONS
This section exclusively highlights the favored teams in mid-tier bowls; and to be honest, we're expecting a minimum success rate of 80 percent.
a) I had serious reservations about Wazzu during the preseason, after seeing the Cougars get bedazzled by Michigan State (my alma mater) in last year's Holiday Bowl.
But to the school's credit, Washington State bounced back with a phenomenal campaign, which included two forgivable defeats (USC, Washington) and a slew of prominent victories.
This trend should continue in the Alamo Bowl.
b) For the regular-season finale, Minnesota walloped Wisconsin to clinch a bowl berth; and as their reward ... the Golden Gophers must now prepare for a triple-option opponent that's extra-motivated to dominate in head coach Paul Johnson's swan song.
Yeah, good luck with that.
c) South Carolina might have been the nation's best five-loss team, which holds great meaning with inter-sectional bowl battles.
Throw in the home-area advantage of playing in nearby Charlotte, and it's hard to imagine Virginia scoring 30-plus points ... let alone knocking off the upward-trending Gamecocks.
(Would South Carolina QB Jake Bentley leave early for the NFL draft?)
d) At first blush, we have no business picking Miami in a cold-weather game ... against a Midwest foe that loves playing in the snow.
However, we're siding with the Hurricanes for two reasons:
**Wisconsin looked positively dreadful in the season-finale home loss to Minnesota.
**Miami exacted revenge on Pittsburgh over Thanksgiving weekend ... and the vengeance train has similar plans for Wisconsin.
(The Badgers upended the Hurricanes in last January's Orange Bowl.)
e) I found Arkansas State's 35-9 home drubbing to Appalachian State (Oct. 9) very troubling; but it's the only tangible complaint from a successful season.
Tough call here, since Nevada has the home-area advantage ... but we'll side with the Vegas experts.
ONE GUILT-ADDLED PICK
REDBOX: Oregon (-3) over Michigan State (confidence: 27)
OBSERVATION
I love my school, but Michigan State's injury-wrecked, talent-deprived offense doesn't have the goods to hang with Oregon, let alone cover the three-point spread.
(Exhibit A: Freshman quarterback Rocky Lombardi has a million-dollar arm ... but woeful accuracy.)
The Spartans' best hope: Becoming the first team in modern bowl history to win a game ... without scoring an offensive point.
REASONABLY CONFIDENT
TAXSLAYER: Texas A&M (-4.5) over NC State (confidence: 26)
NEW MEXICO: Utah State (-7.5) over North Texas
OBSERVATIONS
a) Texas A&M boasts victories over LSU, Kentucky and South Carolina this season. What's more, the Aggies incurred respectable losses to two Playoff participants (Alabama, Clemson).
On the flip side, North Carolina State's two biggest wins might have entailed Virginia ... and Marshall? Ugh.
b) I'm typically weary of picking big favorites in bowl games, after the head coach bolts for another program (Chris Klieman to Kansas State).
However, for the Aggies' 10-game winning streak during the regular season, eight yielded a double-digit point spread.
Bottom line: Utah State always takes care of business against inferior opponents.
AM I MISSING SOMETHING HERE?
COTTON: Clemson (-11.5) over Notre Dame (confidence: 24)
OBSERVATION
Clemson has an amazing defensive line (potentially three high picks next spring), a top-notch backfield (led by Travis Etienne) and perhaps the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft (quarterback Trevor Lawrence).
But should that make the Tigers nearly two-touchdown favorites over Notre Dame?
Look, I get it. Notre Dame had some shaky early victories, but the Fighting Irish have been terrific since Week 4, rolling through the likes of Stanford, Northwestern, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest and USC.
From my perspective, this Notre Dame team has greater physical prowess than the 2012 squad that got pounded by Alabama in the BCS title game; and yet, most national pundits still cast the 2018 Irish in a similar light.
SURE, SURE ... WHATEVER
PEACH: Michigan (-7.5) over Florida (confidence: 23)
FIESTA: LSU (-7.5) over Central Florida
ARMED FORCES: Army (-3) over Houston
IDAHO POTATO: BYU (-12) over Western Michigan
SUN: Pittsburgh (+6.5) over Stanford
OBSERVATIONS
This grouping covers four games with near-consensus winners (Michigan, LSU, Army, BYU), along with my most confident underdog selection (Pittsburgh over Stanford).
a) I'm not the world's biggest Feleipe Franks fan, when paired against top-end defenses.
That said, if any defeatist pick here has the potential for a double-digit-point ambush, it's the Gators ... who've made great strides in Year 1 of the Dan Mullen regime.
b) It's a simple deal for UCF: Beat LSU ... and the Knights (undefeated since 2016) will secure a 10-year free pass with national audiences, in terms of getting the benefit of the doubt against Power 5 conferences.
The real over/under involves how many times ESPN will show the 'jacket' brouhaha between Cougars head coach Major Applewhite ... and the departed Ed Oliver, who left school early to focus on the upcoming NFL draft.
d) I can't explain BYU being 12-point favorites over Western Michigan.
Is this a typical spread advantage for a 6-6 club?
On the flip side, I'm not in the position to argue with the Vegas experts, citing one crucial reason:
I watched Western play five times this season ... and the Broncos were 0-5 during these viewings. Fair enough.
UNDERDOGS, UNITE!
OUTBACK: Iowa (+7) over Mississippi State (confidence: 18)
CAMPING WORLD: Syracuse (+1.5) over West Virginia
BOCA RATON: Northern Illinois (+2.5) over UAB
DOLLAR GENERAL: Buffalo (+2) over Troy
MUSIC CITY: Purdue (+3.5) over Auburn
FIRST RESPONDER: Boston College (+3) over Boise State
OBSERVATIONS
Outside of the Sun Bowl listing above (I have a soft spot for Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi), this grouping represents the best underdog selections, according to Vegas Insider:
a) Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald will command the headlines leading up to the Outback; but make no mistake, Iowa's Nate Stanley (49 TD passes the last two seasons) will be an NFL star someday.
As a springboard to that future success, Stanley and the Hawkeyes are primed for an upset in Tampa.
b) Will Grier's early exit from West Virginia (preparing for the NFL draft) substantially dropped his team's point-spread advantage, among the Vegas experts.
Can the Mountaineers recover in time against a Syracuse team that's fully intact?
That's a tough hill to climb ... in such short time.
c) I have great respect for UAB's absurd ascension over the last two seasons, after re-starting the program from scratch.
However, NIU acquitted itself nicely with a formidable schedule, and that experience should translate to bowl success in Boca Raton.
d) I must be crazy to pick against Troy in its home state (Dollar General Bowl) ... but we're riding a good hunch with Buffalo's best team since the Khalil Mack era.
e) Picking Purdue over Auburn only makes sense if we're talking about the Boilermakers who knocked off Ohio State and Iowa ... and not the Purdue team which couldn't muster any offense versus Michigan State and Minnesota.
The better bet for this matchup: Ride the 'over' at 54 1/2 points.
f) The First Responder Bowl should be a good springboard for BC tailback A.J. Dillon (think Marshawn Lynch at Cal, or LeSean McCoy at Pitt), as Dillon launches a Heisman Trophy campaign for next year.
THE 'MEH' SQUAD
GASPARILLA: Marshall (-2.5) over South Florida (confidence: 12)
CURE: Tulane (-2.5) over Louisiana-Lafayette
CHEEZ-IT: TCU (Pick 'Em) over Cal
OBSERVATION
Say hello to three bowl games that only the mothers of active players could love ... along with the gambling community.
In our case, however, there's not a huge investment of swing points. Plus, all three outings will be concluded rather early during the bowl stretch.
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
BAHAMAS: Toledo (-5.5) over Florida International (confidence: 9)
HOLIDAY: Utah (-7) over Northwestern
FRISCO: Ohio (-3) over San Diego State
CAMELLIA: Georgia Southern (-2.5) over Eastern Michigan
HAWAII: Louisiana Tech (+1) over Hawaii
NEW ORLEANS: Appalachian State (-6.5) over Middle Tennessee
OBSERVATION
There's just one underdog of the bunch, and it involves Louisiana Tech's 'road' upset of Hawaii.
For everything else, we're inclined to believe the Vegas experts ... including the over/under selection for Northwestern-Utah (46 points).
If you watched two seconds of the painful Pac-12 title game (Utah vs. Washington), you would know the 'under' could pay off handsomely.
BLIND SHOTS IN THE DARK
TEXAS: Baylor (+4) over Vanderbilt (confidence: 3)
INDEPENDENCE: Duke (+3.5) over Temple
LAS VEGAS: Arizona State (+5) over Fresno State
OBSERVATION
The final category involves a trifecta of underdog picks; but my analysis doesn't go much deeper than seasonal track record ... or the time-tested gut feeling.
Here's one caveat though: If Vanderbilt were playing Baylor in any other state, aside from Texas, the Commodores would be a solid pick for victory.
However, the percentage of pro-Baylor customers in Houston, conservatively speaking, could be in the 80-percent range.
