The seasonal Eye Test tells me that Alabama has a 90-percent chance of going undefeated and capturing its sixth national championship of the century (2009, 2011-12, 2015, 2017).
The Crimson Tide are loaded with depth in the trenches, possess star power at the playmaking spots and will undoubtedly feature a flood of NFL players in the not-too-distant future.
As luck would have it, 'Bama also has access to the greatest college coach of the last 40 years (Nick Saban).
Maybe forever, depending on one's perspective.
That said, college kids are neither immune nor invulnerable from failure in a one-game, winner-take-all setting.
11Alive Sports tracks the trends from Alabama's most recent five defeats (Ohio State in 2014, Ole Miss in 2015-16, Clemson in 2017, Auburn in 2017), while identifying three connective threads for UGA's upset bid of the top-ranked Tide.
1. Georgia must control the time-of-possession battle
Charting Alabama's most recent five defeats, the winning team prevailed with possession three times (Auburn, Clemson, Ohio State).
Would this necessarily ensure victory? Given Alabama's quick-strike offense, and the big-play capabilities of Heisman Trophy front-runner Tua Tagovailoa, probably not.
However, short of UGA rolling to a shocking 21-0 lead in the first quarter, thus forcing Alabama to play desperation ball for 40-plus minutes, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Crimson Tide dominate TOP ... and yet, still trail on the scoreboard.
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As such, the Dawgs must hunker down and stick to the plan of controlling the clock, being physical up front and utilizing the depth and talent of their formidable backfield.
Check this out: For Georgia's six biggest victories of the seasons (South Carolina, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Tech), the Bulldogs averaged 45 carries for 252 yards and 1.7 TDs.
(For the lone defeat to LSU, UGA averaged a paltry 3.8 yards per carry ... despite being very productive on the end in the opening quarter.)
Can Georgia crack the 35-plus threshold of rushes against Alabama?
On paper, no. The Crimson Tide boast the 15th-ranked rush defense from the regular season, surrendering only 3.3 yards per carry.
However, there's some recent precedent here:
In last year's Iron Bowl, Auburn won the TOP battle by 12 full minutes and rushed the ball 49 times for 168 yards and two touchdowns.
The yards-per-carry tally was marginal, at best, but the Tigers still clung to the strategy of keeping Alabama's offense off the field.
Which brings us to this ...
2. D'Andre Swift or Elijah Holyfied must be The Man against the Tide
At this stage of his nascent career, does UGA quarterback Jake Fromm have the chops to carry Georgia to a win on Saturday?
That's a tough one to answer.
Of his last eight games, Fromm accrued a completion rate north of 70 percent six times; and one of the 'clunkers' entailed two touchdowns and 65-percent passing.
If anyone should emerge as the Dawgs' Alpha Hero, it'll likely be Swift (1,166 total yards, 10 TDs) or Holyfield (896 rushing yards, 7 TDs).
Either one has the potential to become the next Ezekiel Elliott or Kerryon Johnson–two stars that wreaked havoc in their landmark upsets of Alabama.
Elliott: 243 total yards, 2 TDs (2015 Sugar Bowl)
Johnson: 33 touches, 125 total yards, 1 TD
That's what it takes to beat Alabama. If you're going to beat a defense full of future NFL prospects, it requires an opposing back with the requisite power and speed to accomplish the feat.
3. The Dawgs' secondary must be the instigators in UGA winning the turnover battle
The above sentence might sound a little weird, since Georgia posted more fumble recoveries (nine) than interceptions (six) during the regular season.
Also, the Bulldogs finished strong down the stretch, in terms of ranking 27th nationally against the run.
However, Georgia also ranked 101st nationally in sacks collected, falling short of two per game (on average).
Why does this matter?
Of the five defeats listed above, Alabama went 0-4-1 with the turnover battle.
Bottom line: UGA cornerback Deandre Baker needs to play like someone capable of winning the Thorpe Award.
