UGA football encountered a good news/bad news proposition during Tuesday night's release of the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
On the plus side ... as expected, the Bulldogs (11-1 overall, SEC East champs) moved up to the No. 4 spot, trailing only Alabama (1st), Clemson (2nd) and Notre Dame (3rd).
On the down side, the Playoff ranking—while certainly UGA's best showing of the season—doesn't leave the Bulldogs much wiggle room, in advance of Saturday's SEC title game with the vaunted Crimson Tide.
And that's a problem, factoring in how Oklahoma (5th) and Ohio State (6th) are both Vegas favorites for the Big 12 and Big Ten championships, respectively.
Consequently, it's a pretty simple dynamic for Georgia: Pull off the upset of the season (beating 'Bama) ... and you're in!
Otherwise, it'll likely be a case of Close, But No Cigar.
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Rounding out the top 10: Michigan (7th), UCF (8th), Florida (9th) and LSU (10th).
WIN-WIN FOR EVERYONE?
The SEC faces a no-lose situation heading into this weekend, knowing the league champion will represent the conference in the national semifinals.
As for shoehorning two conference schools into the four-team Playoff, here are the two ways it could plausibly occur:
SCENARIO #1
In our opinion, Alabama's a lock for the Playoff, win or lose versus Georgia.
Why is that?
With the exception of Texas A&M, top-ranked 'Bama has shredded every other major opponent by at least 24 points--including No. 10 LSU (29-0 in Baton Rouge).
As such, Alabama undoubtedly has some wiggle room for reaching the Playoff, should it fall to Georgia on Saturday. (Not that Nick Saban would ever leave such things to chance.)
So, if Georgia stages an epic coup and wins on Saturday, the final CFP rankings would likely bear this look:
ORANGE BOWL: 1) Clemson vs. 4) Alabama
COTTON BOWL: 2) Georgia vs. 3) Notre Dame
SCENARIO #2
Let's say the Georgia-Alabama comes down to the final seconds, with the Crimson Tide having enough good fortune to earn a thrilling victory.
Would the Playoff committee really punish Georgia that much, considering how no other team in college football had even tested Alabama in the fourth quarter?
If Oklahoma loses to Texas (Big 12 title game), and Ohio State struggles against Northwestern for the Big Ten championship (win or lose), this might be enough to sweep the Bulldogs into the Playoff.
The only flaw with this rationale: The CFP committee would never force top-ranked Alabama to beat Georgia twice, just to reach the championship bout.
The only way to work around this? Clemson would need to struggle mightily against Pittsburgh (ACC title game) ... although it would be unrealistic to project a loss on the Tigers' end.
Under the above hypothetical, the final Playoff rankings could appear like this:
COTTON BOWL: 1) Alabama vs. 4) Clemson
ORANGE BOWL: 2) Notre Dame vs. 3) Georgia
