AUGUSTA, Ga. — Golf's best week is officially upon us, and with that comes a plethora of storylines that highlight the best of the best at the 88th Masters.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has the shortest odds (+450) to win at the fabled Augusta National since Tiger Woods (+350) in 2013. He is the highest favorite to win the Masters in this century that is not named Tiger Woods, if that gives you any example of how big of a favorite he is.
But let's not forget, this is the greatest golf tournament in the world with the best golfers on the planet. Whether it be defending Masters champion Jon Rahm, major extraordinaire Brooks Koepka, or even Rory McIlroy, who is looking to complete a career grand slam with a win this week at Augusta National.
There are plenty of names who will be in contention this week, but let's look at the three golfers who have the best chances of winning this week based on course history and play heading into this week.
Scottie Scheffler
Do I have to say anything at all? Scheffler comes into this week with the best odds of any golfer to win the Masters this century of anybody not named Tiger Woods. In fact, the greatest roadblock to Scheffler's second green jacket may be the fact that his wife could potentially give birth during the tournament, for which Scheffler said he would withdraw if that happened.
But if that doesn't happen, there is no reason to pick against Scheffler. He has the highest gained strokes rained per round at Augusta National of this field, gaining 2.22 strokes per round, only trailing Jon Rahm at 2.38.
Let's dive even deeper:
Scheffler is first in golf in scoring average (adjusted) at 69.021, scoring average (actual) at 67.39, scoring average before cut (67.39), stroke differential field average (+2.59), rounds in the 60s (24), birdie average (5.48), bogey avoidance (8.24%), Par 5 scoring average (4.34) and countless more.
Scheffler's Par 5 scoring, a tell-tell statistic historically at the Masters, bodes well for the 2022 Masters champ. Twelve of the last 14 winners ranked inside the top 40 for the season in Par 5 scoring in the year leading up to their Masters win.
In the seven events Scheffler has played in this year, he has finished:
- The Sentry: T5 (-25)
- The American Express T17 (-21)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am T6 (-13)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open T3 (-18))
- The Genesis Invitational T10 (-8)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational 1 (-15)
- THE PLAYERS Championship 1 (-20)
- Texas Children's Houston Open T2 (-11)
How do you pick against him?
Xander Schauffele
Take away Scheffler, and there's nobody striking the ball better right now than Xander Schauffele. The gold medalist in the Olympics is still searching for his first elusive major, but make no mistake about it, Schauffele is poised for his first -- and it could be this week.
The X-man has the fourth-best odds to win the Masters at +1400, and his game has been elevating in 2024.
It looked like there was a good chance that Schaueffele was going to pick up his first win since 2022 at THE PLAYERS Championship several weeks ago, but he lost a final-round lead to a resurgent Scheffler, who became the first back-to-back champion at TPC Sawgrass.
Schauffele fits more categories than any other player when it comes to historical results at Augusta National.
People talk about Scheffler's finishes this year, but Schauffele's finishing positions this year have mirrored Scheffer's, except for the fact that he hasn't stood at the top of the podium this year. But he has everything it takes to hoist the most prestigious trophy in golf.
Schauffele, this year, has finished:
- The Sentry: T10 (-24)
- The American Express T3 (-27)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am T54 (-4)
- The Genesis Invitational T25 (E)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational 1 (-15)
- THE PLAYERS Championship T2 (-19)
- Texas Children's Houston Open T5 (-8)
Hideki Matsuyama
Making what is already his 13th start at Augusta National, the Japanese native heads into the week with the seventh-best odds to win. The 2021 champion sits tied with Joaquin Niemann and behind the aforementioned Schaueffele, who has never won a major.
He may not be the best putter, but Matsuyama's short game is terrific. He ranks first in SG: Around-the-Green at 0.712 and is third in SG: Tee-to-Green at 1.535. Matsuyama didn't put phenomenally when he finished -10 to win, but he made it count in all the important categories that Masters winners traditionally excel in -- categories he has performed well in all season long.
Matsuyama has played some of the best golf of any PGA Tour golfer in 2024, but especially when you look at his results over his last five tournaments -- they're simply remarkable and hard to ignore.
Despite playing some very respectable golf over his first four tournaments of the season (58, T30, T13, T71), Matsuyama really turned the afterburners on to set the tone for his year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He posted a 9-under at TPC Scottsdale which was good for T22. He followed that up a week later with a final-round 62 at Riveria to win Tiger Woods' Genesis Invitational with a score of -17.
Since then, Matsuyama has gone:
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: T12 (-3)
- THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 (-15)
- Valero Texas Open: T7(-8)
My pick to win the Masters:
Xander Schaueffele
I believe this is Schaeuffele's year. He has come too close to winning here at Augusta National in years past, finishing inside the top five in three of his six starts. Schauffele finished T2 at the Masters in 2019 and 2023 and finished T3 in 2021. He even finished inside the top 20 (T17) in 2020 and finished T50 in his first appearance in 2018. His only MC was in 2022.
In 2019, he once held a six-way lead but parred the final four holes to finish a stroke behind Tiger Woods.
The 30-year-old has made 42 consecutive cuts and has finished inside the top 10 in five of his seven starts, which is remarkable.
Other guys I like this week: Joaquin Niemann, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley, Patrick Reed
