NEW YORK — Every year, baseball fans and pundits like to predict who will win the major awards, MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year. But what about Comeback Player of the Year? Sure, they like to do that as well but the fun thing about this category is it’s hard to predict because comebacks are made in different ways. Some players are coming back from injuries and others are trying to bounce back after a down season either offensively or on the mound.
Last season Justin Verlander won AL Comeback Player of the Year and Albert Pujols won NL Comeback Player of the Year. Verlander was coming back from Tommy John surgery and ended up winning his second World Series title and American League Cy Young Award while Pujols came out of nowhere to have an amazing season that culminated with him finishing his sure-fire Hall of Fame career with 703 home runs.
So who will it be this season? We picked five players from each league who are either coming back from injury or trying to bounce back after a rough 2022.
American League
Tyler Glasnow - Tampa Bay Rays
Glasnow made his comeback in 2022 but saw very limited action—only two regular season games—which means 2023 will be his first full season back with the Rays after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. When he returned to the Rays, he looked pretty good. He threw 6 and ⅔ innings, and gave up one run on four hits with 10 strikeouts in those two appearances. Glasnow also started for the Rays in that 15-inning marathon Game Two against the Guardians in the Wild Card Round last year and threw five innings of shut-out ball. So, look for Glasnow to not only be a big contributor for the Rays this season but don’t be surprised if he’s one of the top candidates for Comeback Player of the Year.
Chris Sale - Boston Red Sox
To say Sales 2022 was a disaster would be an understatement. But to be fair, Sales past three seasons have also been subpar. He’s only made 11 starts since the beginning of the 2020 season and he missed most of 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and after missing the first 87 games of 2022 because of a stress fracture in his ribs, he suffered a fractured finger in only his second start of the season thanks to an Aaron Hicks comebacker that was clocked at 106.7 MPH off the bat. Then, in an unbelievable turn of events, while Sale was hoping to come back from that finger fracture, he broke his right wrist in a bicycle accident in August, ending his season. If Sale can stick around the entire season, he should win the award just for not hurting himself.
Joey Gallo - Minnesota Twins
Gallo is one of those players who is trying to bounce back from a couple of down seasons. He was known as a guy who would strike out a lot but he was also lauded for his on-base percentage and his ability to hit home runs. Unfortunately for Gallo those numbers also took a hit in the past few years. While with Texas in 2019, Gallo’s OBP was .389 while he hit a home run every 11 at-bats and his strike out rate was 35%. That’s pretty high but it got a lot worse. In 2022, when he split the season between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, Gallo’s OBP plummeted to an abysmal .280, he was hitting home runs every 18 at-bats and his strikeout rate rose to almost 40%. He batted .160/.280/.357 with 19 home runs in 2022. The only way for Gallo to go is up, right? He certainly hopes so and so do the Minnesota Twins who signed him to a one-year/$11M deal for 2023.
Yasmani Grandal - Chicago White Sox
Grandal is another player whose numbers took a big hit in 2022. In 375 plate appearances in 2021, Grandal had a .420 OBP, hit 23 home runs and his walk percentage was 23.2—both his OBP and walk rates were the highest in AL that season. In 2022, Grandal had 376 plate appearances but his OBP dropped to .301 and his walk rate plummeted to 12%. He also only hit five runs. Grandal isn’t a guy who hits for average—he hit .240 in 2021 and .202 in 2022—but his other numbers are the ones to look out for. Now, he also had knee issues in 2022 so if Grandal is healthy in 2023, look for his stats to be more like they were in 2021.
Brandon Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays
Lowe had his best season in 2021. He had career highs in games played, home runs, and runs batted in. He just missed 40 and 100 by hitting 39 home runs and driving in 99 runs. But Lowe had a rough season in 2022. He only played in 65 games due to a back injury and hit eight home runs. Lowe being injured and Glasnow not returning until September are two key reasons why the Rays underperformed in the AL East in 2022 and if Lowe can return to his 2022 form in 2023, look for him to be a comeback player of the year candidate and the Rays to be back battling for first place with the Yankees and Blue Jays.
National League
Jesse Winker - Milwaukee Brewers
Winker’s 2022 wasn’t terrible but he went from being a highly coveted player acquired in a trade from the Reds to the Mariners to being shipped off again to Milwaukee this offseason. When he was traded to Seattle they were hoping for the guy who hit .305 with 24 home runs in 110 games with the Reds in 2021. Instead, they got a guy who hit .219 with 14 home runs in 136 games. Maybe Winker can bounce back with the Brewers.
Tyler O’Neill - St. Louis Cardinals
O’Neill is another guy who had a great 2021 but was plagued by injuries in 2022. He was so good in 2021 that he had the highest WAR by a St. Louis outfielder (6.3) since Albert Pujols in 2003. Not too shabby. In 2022, O’Neill’s offense and defense suffered. He only played in 96 games and batted .228 with 14 home runs and only had one defensive run saved. Compare that to 2021 when he played in 138 games, hit 34 home runs, and had 11 defensive runs saved and you have a down year. Hopefully, for O’Neill and the Cardinals, he can stay healthy and maybe he can make it two Comeback Player of the Year awards in a row for St. Louis.
Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds
Votto is turning 40 this September, he’s been battling injuries, and this could be the last season of his career, so wouldn’t it be fun if Votto could have a resurgence like Albert Pujols did in 2022? Votto only played in 91 games for the Reds in 2022 and had some of the worst numbers of his career. His lowest batting (.205), second lowest home run total in a non-rookie or non-COVID affected season (11), and his B-WAR was -0.3. Much like Joey Gallo in the AL, the only way to go for Votto is up and hopefully he can have one last good season in 2023.
Eddie Rosario - Atlanta Braves
Rosario had a rough 2022 which started with a horrific April in which is batted under .100 and it turned out, he was having vision issues thanks to a swollen retina. The thing with Rosario is that he can hit and last year seemed like an aberration so now that his eye is all better, Braves fans can expect his numbers to be a lot better in 2023 than they were in 2022. This is a guy who usually hits double digits home runs and he only mustered five in 80 games in 2022. So yeah, look for Rosario to be one of the guys people are talking about when Comeback Player of the Year is awarded.
Jonathan India - Cincinnati Reds
India went through a bit of a sophomore slump in 2022 after winning Rookie of the Year in 2021 but his troubles were exacerbated by injuries. He had hamstring issues in the first half of the season and then he suffered a bone bruise during the Field of Dreams game and never fully recovered from that. India also admitted to putting too much pressure on himself after winning the ROY so that just all added up to a less-than-stellar 2022. Look for India, if healthy, to bounce back. Plus, he’s playing on the Reds where you don’t have (or shouldn’t have) a lot of pressure on you until it’s self-inflicted so hopefully, India learned his lesson and will relax a bit this season.