ATLANTA—The text alert stopped me dead in my tracks during a long run.
While jogging through the streets of northwest Atlanta on Wednesday, I received an out-of-nowhere text from MLB.com, with the simple tease of ...
Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman lead early straw poll for baseball MVPs.
On the surface, the alert wasn't offering anything in the shock-and-awe department, since Trout (two AL MVPs, three second-place finishes since 2012) easily stands as the best player in baseball and the Atlanta Braves' hot start (virtual tie for 1st in the NL East) represents one of the best redemptive stories, to date.
On the flip side, it seemed a little surreal that Freeman could be a front-runner for one of the most prestigious honors in sports, primarily because he hasn't cracked the top-3 voting for NL MVP over eight previous seasons.
Plus, he's had his share of injuries in recent years.
In the present, though, Freeman has been a consistent and bankable force for the 36-26 Braves, bringing excellent production to eight different offensive categories (National League leader in OBP)—or nine, if you count offensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among positional players (tied for first in the NL).
Here's a breakdown of Freeman's excellent case for NL MVP with 38.2 percent of the MLB season already in the books:
PROJECTION TIME
Freeman has played in all 62 Braves games this season.
If we extrapolate his current numbers (11 HR, 43 RBI, 39 runs, 18 doubles, 5 steals) over a 162-game campaign, it works out to 29 homers, 112 RBI, 102 runs, 47 doubles and 13 steals, along with the current tallies for batting average (.338), on-base percentage (.432) and OPS (.993).
Rock-solid numbers, for sure; but how would these figures stack up in a hypothetical MVP race?
Nine positional players have captured National League MVP honors over the last 10 seasons—Giancarlo Stanton, Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols twice.
(Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw claimed both Cy Young/NL MVP in 2014.)
The per-annum averages for the nine MVP batters: 37.7 homers, 110.6 RBI, 108.4 runs, 38.3 doubles, .322 batting average, .418 OBP, 1.017 OPS.
In other words ... Freeman would be on the mark—or relatively close—with RBI, runs, doubles, batting average and on-base percentage, with only slightly lacking stats in homers and OPS (even though he leads the NL in the metrics-friendly stat of OPS+).
However, if Freeman could somehow get to 15 steals, it would add value to his MVP case, given how it's an impressive tally for first basemen.
The added dimension of speed certainly worked for Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen in 2013 (21 HR, 84 RBI, 97 runs, 38 doubles, 27 steals, .317 batting, .911 OPS) and Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins in 2007 (30 HR, 94 RBI, 139 runs, 41 steals, 20 triples, 38 doubles).
SENIOR CIRCUIT BIG FOUR
a) From 2013-17, Diamondbacks slugger Paul Goldschmidt averaged 30 homers, 104 RBI, 101 runs, 19 steals, 36 doubles and five triples, along with a .304 batting average, .410 OBP and .953 OPS.
During this five-year span, Goldschmidt ranked in the top 3 for NL MVP three times, even though Arizona finished above .500 just once (2017).
b) Votto was certainly worthy of NL MVP in 2010 (37 HR, 113 RBI, 106 runs, 36 doubles, 16 steals, .324 batting, .424 OBP, 1.024 OPS).
However, one could argue Votto enjoyed more sustained personal success from 2015-17, when the Reds superstar forged a three-year average of 31 homers, 92 RBI, 101 runs, 34 doubles, eight steals and 128 walks (an absurd tally), along with a .320 batting average, .449 OBP and 1.006 OPS.
During this prolific period, Votto finished in the top-3 voting twice.
c) Anthony Rizzo often gets shut out of the three-way praise circle for Freeman, Goldschmidt and Votto, but he's had a strong career to date, collecting four consecutive top-13 finishes with NL MVP.
During this span, the Cubs star has averaged 32 homers, 99 RBI, 94 runs, 35 doubles, a .387 on-base percentage and .910 OPS.
The only stat driving down Rizzo's candidacy: Unless you're belting 50-plus homers and 130 RBI—a la Stanton last year with the Marlins—it's difficult to steal the hearts of MVP voters with a sub-.290 batting average.
d) Did you know Freeman has crossed the magical thresholds of 30-plus homers, 100-plus RBI and 100-plus runs scored just once apiece? (2013 with homers, 2016 with runs and RBI.)
These statistical shortcomings were largely the result of injuries, which vaults us back into an earlier statement:
If Freeman is dead-serious about reaching the 157-game mark (or higher) for just the fourth time in his career, this is the year to do it.
There's too much at stake—individually and team-wise—to settle for anything else, health permitting.
WINNING CURES MOST 'MVP' ILLS
Counting team records of the last 10 NL MVPs (including Clayton Kershaw), the average success rate shakes out to 91.3 victories per season.
Through 62 games, the Braves are on track for 93.7 wins. Within that figure, Atlanta would be a prohibitive favorite to either secure the NL East title or one of the two wild-card slots (along with the Cubs/Brewers loser in the NL Central).
But make no mistake: Considering Freeman's lack of national buzz (one career All-Star Game at-bat), the Braves must win the division to justify their star's MVP cause; or at the very least, Freeman would need to carry Atlanta on his back for a sustained period during August or September.
Here's something else to consider: With Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies enjoying a breakthrough campaign (14 HR, 35 RBI, 51 runs, 19 doubles, 6 steals, 135 total bases—league leader in three categories), is it possible that Albies' success could detract from Freeman's MVP candidacy, citing the split-vote argument?
History says no.
Since 1993, multiple teammates have finished in the top-5 voting for NL MVP a staggering 12 times; and during that span, four MVP winners (Ryan Braun, Kris Bryant, Jimmy Rollins, Jeff Kent) prevailed, despite sharing votes within their club.
In Freeman's case, the rising tide of personal dominance, renewed durability and glorious team success lifts all ships.
