ATLANTA — It's difficult to make definitive predictions about the 2019 Atlanta Braves, since free agent Bryce Harper – who might still sign with the Phillies or Nationals – could have a major influence on the National League East race.
That said, we're prepared to confidently attack the following "over/under" propositions, dealing with three individuals and one team-focused projection, regardless of wherever Harper lands.
For the Braves, spring-training action starts Saturday (vs. the Mets) and the regular-season clashes with the Phillies (road opener) and Cubs (home opener) launch on March 28 and April 1, respectively.
OVER/UNDER PREDICTIONS
RONALD ACUNA JR. BELTING 28.5 HOMERS THIS SEASON?
The 20-year-old Acuna captured NL Rookie of the Year honors last season, while also leading the Braves in homers (26).
Not a bad feat, considering Acuna spent the vast majority of April killing time in the minor leagues (delaying his MLB service time).
In 2018, Acuna averaged one home run for every 4.3 games, or every 17 at-bats; and if we were to extrapolate that figure to a doable estimate of 150 games, Acuna could have notched 34.9 homers as a rookie.
Here are two more reasons to believe Acuna will lead Atlanta in homers once again:
a) Acuna, who blasted 19 homers during the second half of the season, has more lineup protection this year, thanks to the addition of former AL MVP Josh Donaldson.
b) The outfielder stands to improve his walk-to-strikeout ratio in Year 2. Last season, Acuna essentially drew 1.8 walks for every five strikeouts.
VERDICT: OVER
JULIO TEHERAN LOGGING 22 STARTS FOR THE BRAVES?
On the surface, this seems like a patently unfair question, since Teheran has logged 30-plus starts over six consecutive seasons and rarely misses time, due to injury.
But ay the rub ... the above query covers 22 starts for the Braves, factoring in the plausibility of Teheran being dealt before the July 31 trade deadline.
In that regard, it makes sense to endorse the "under" with Teheran, who has a $12 million option for next season ... but a $1 million buyout from the same contract.
There are other reasons to expect a Teheran exodus in roughly five months' time:
a) The Braves' top four prospects (Mike Soroka, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Ian Anderson) are all starting pitchers; and the best way to alleviate the impending rotation logjam – short of a monumental trade for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner – would involve the jettisoning of Teheran in due time.
b) Opposing general managers should prioritize the 28-year-old Teheran in modest trade deals.
The durability's there (six straight years of 30-plus starts); and for last year, Teheran had a solid ERA on the road (3.92), while holding opposing hitters to a .183 average away from SunTrust Park.
VERDICT: UNDER
JOHAN CAMARGO COLLEC 85 STARTS IN THE INFIELD?
This one's tough to handicap.
Perusing the present depth chart, Camargo doesn't have an every-day home in the Braves' lineup.
And since there's no designated hitter in the National League, Camargo must transform into a super-utility weapon – covering third base, shortstop, second base, first base and the corner outfield spots – to get a steady diet of season-long at-bats.
As a rookie, Camargo (19 HR, 76 RBI, 63 runs, .272 batting, .349 on-base percentage) logged 130 infield starts, with none in the outfield.
Will this trend continue in 2019, or might 20 games in left field suffice for the Braves, in terms of keeping their asset happy?
Bottom line: The club likely doesn't want to part with Camargo, via trade, unless it's for a big-time pitching prize (Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Felix Hernandez, Rick Porcello, Jake Odorizzi) heading toward free agency.
VERDICT: UNDER
BRAVES POSTING 85.5 VICTORIES FOR THE YEAR?
If the above number seems low for the Braves (90 wins last season), just remember that Baseball Prospectus has a projected victory total of only 84.
Let's start with the Braves' 49-27 record against the National League East last year – the second-best intra-division tally of any champ (Red Sox had 52 wins vs. the AL East).
Atlanta likely has a stronger and deeper infield (Donaldson could be the No. 1 pickup of the offseason) and more seasoning with the pitchers; but if we've learned anything from baseball, 90 wins should never be viewed as the minimum baseline of expectations the following season.
Every year has its own momentum; and this especially rings true, when factoring in how the Phillies, Nationals, Mets and even Marlins have undergone roster upgrades.
Now for the positive part ...
Here are four reasons why the Braves should be viewed as solid candidates for 87 or more wins:
a) Atlanta won't travel over the Rocky Mountains after July 14 (West Coast trips are primarily front-loaded).
b) The Braves play against the American League Central this season, baseball's worst division last year.
c) Atlanta had a 21-26 record last year, in games with an opposing left-handed starting pitcher. With Donaldson adding power to the middle of the lineup, a .500 mark versus southpaws could be doable.
d) This might not help the overall-victory argument, but it's certainly worth mentioning:
The Braves aren't the only division team with struggles against the NL West. Last season, the five East teams had a combined head-to-head differential of minus-15.
VERDICT: OVER
