PHILADELPHIA — It's official: Bryce Elder will start the pivotal National League Division Series Game 3 in Philadelphia tonight.
It had been a question primarily between 24-year-old Elder - an All-Star this season who struggled badly in the second half after the break - and A.J. Smith Shawver, a rookie right-hander who'd had flashes of excellence in limited time this year.
The Braves made the announcement on X, posting a photo of Elder.
NLDS Game 3 basics
- Who: Braves vs. Phillies
- What: NLDS Game 3
- Where: Philadelphia
- When: 5:07 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
The Braves and Phillies enter Game 3 with the NLDS tied at 1-1, following Atlanta's remarkable come-from-behind victory on Monday night.
It's expected that Spencer Strider and Max Fried will make starts on shorter rest for the Braves in Games 4 and 5.
The decision to make Elder the Game 3 starter is a significant show of faith in the right-hander, for whom it had been something of an open question if he'd even make the NLDS roster prior to the series.
Elder carved up opposing hitters relying on his diving and cutting sinker/slider mix with strong command - but it was notably the command that most abandoned him in the second half.
In 17 starts through July 3, Elder recorded a 2.45 ERA in 102 2/3 innings with a walks-per-9-innings of 2.63 (a number that would have ranked him solidly toward the top of the league). In 15 starts after that, Elder posted a 5.75 ERA in 72 innings with a walks-per-9 of 4.13.
Elder also started getting hit much harder, allowing 0.70 home runs per 9 innings through July 3 and 1.38 after.
Things were particularly rough in his final three starts of the season, as he surrendered 13 earned runs on 19 hits in just 12 1/3 innings (9.49 ERA), issuing nine walks and surrendering three home runs.
Still, his overall body of work gets him the nod over Smith-Shawver, a 20-year-old right-hander who ran hot through the minors and then made his debut unexpectedly early in June. He, too, ran hot then cold, with a 2.03 ERA in his first three starts and 6.75 ERA in his three starts after that (though his final start of the year on Sept. 28 was relatively strong - one run, one walk in 3 2/3 innings against Chicago).
As it happens, tonight's Philadelphia starter is Aaron Nola - meaning the two will be in a rematch of the game from Sept. 20, which Philly won 6-5 in a game where Nola went six innings and allowed two runs as Elder walked five and allowed four runs in 3 2/3 innings.
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