Our bold predictions for the Atlanta Braves in 2024
The expectations for the Atlanta Braves this season are yet again monumental.
As the sting of a second straight postseason loss to the NL East-rival Philadelphia Phillies has faded away into the not-too-distant past once again, the expectations for the Atlanta Braves in 2024 are yet again monumental.
It goes without saying, but there's plenty to like about this team this year. They return nearly every positional player on the diamond -- six of whom made the National League All-Star team a season ago. They also boast two of the best starting pitchers in the game, each of whom finished in the top five in Cy Young voting in the past two seasons, respectively.
Atlanta also welcomes in some new faces this year, the likes of which Braves fans hope can help get them past the dreaded NLDS and back to the World Series after winning it all three years ago. From Chris Sale, Jarred Kelenic and Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves have added some exciting talent to its lineup and pitching staff this season.
11Alive's Reggie Chatman, Maria Martin, Reeves Jackson and Jonathan Raymond, along with 92.9 The Game Braves reporter and 11Alive Braves insider Grant McAuley, got together and made a few predictions that will be sure to stand the test of time about this Braves team in 2024. Happy reading.
Breakout Player Who will take the leap?
Who will be a breakout player for the Atlanta Braves in 2024?
Reggie: Austin Riley - I think it's incredible that we're this far in and Austin Riley is such a superstar and he still feels underrated on a roster with all these guys that could potentially win MVP. He's my breakout star this year. Last year, Riley hit 37 homers and drove in 97, and now this year, I think he takes that next step and is decided as maybe the best third baseman in all of baseball. With his bat and his glove, I believe he can finally be a guy who doesn't feel underrated at the position.
Maria: Jarred Kelenic
Grant: Michael Harris II - This might sound like a weird response because his first two years in the majors have been so good, and I think have established him as one of the top young stars and talents on any team in either league. But when you look at what he did in the second half last year, really from June on, hitting .335, an OPS over .900 and nearly a 20/20 year from him. He's a gold glove-quality fielder. If he's able to put together a full healthy season in which I think he'll move up in the order as well, this could bode well for Harris and a Braves offense that was already powerful, he could just make it that much better this year.
Reeves: Jarred Kelenic - Let's not forget that Jarred Kelenic was a first-round pick (No. 6 overall) by the New York Mets in the 2018 MLB Draft. He got traded to the Seattle Mariners later that offseason for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano and broke into the bigs with Seattle in 2021. We saw the flashes of serious potential from Kelenic in the first two months of last season. He hit .280 with 10 home runs in April and May of 2023.
I think there's a lot of pressure being a top-10 pick and cracking the big leagues with the feeling that you have to be "the guy." Now he comes over to Atlanta where there are stars all over the place. I think the pressure will be off Kelenic batting toward the bottom of the lineup, and it won't feel like he has to be the guy to produce. He'll get to relax and swing the bat and I forecast a breakout season for the new Braves left fielder.
Jonathan: Reynaldo López - So, I'm not quite trying to say he'll be an All-Star or anything, but I think the 30-year-old qualifies here a little bit in the same way that Orlando Arcia wound up filling a major hole for the Braves last season. A once-upon-a-time top prospect (like Arcia) with undeniable talent (like Arcia) and some moderate though not overwhelming past success (like Arcia), the Braves feel like a right-place-right-time situation for things to fully click for López (like they did for Arcia).
The right-hander found his groove the last few seasons as a reliever, but the Braves right now think he can transition back to starting and I think they'll be proven right. He's simplified things the last few years into being almost exclusively a fastball-slider guy, which is harder to get away with as a starter, but hey - it's not like there's not already someone on the Braves who has shown that blueprint can indeed work. I think López justifies the "breakout" choice here if he throws, let's say, 150-160 innings with a mid-3s ERA - and I think there's a universe where he maybe even exceeds that.
Cy Young Who will lead the staff?
Who will be the Atlanta Braves team Cy Young in 2024?
Reggie: Spencer Strider
Maria: Spencer Strider
Grant: Spencer Strider - Spencer Strider is the answer to this, and if you have any other answer on your paper, please mark through it. This is going to be a career year for Spencer, coming off a season in which he established himself as the preeminent strikeout pitcher in all of baseball. This is not a knock on Max Fried, who didn't get the Opening Day start after getting it for three straight years. Spencer Strider is just that good and elite, and I think he's going to start cementing that legacy this year.
Reeves: Max Fried - Well, Grant, I decided not to mark a line through my paper because I just didn't want to be like College GameDay where we all make the same picks and turn out to jinx it and be wrong. So I'll go with Max Fried simply due to the fact that he's in a contract year and is going to try and drive up his price in the upcoming offseason. It's hard to believe in the seven seasons Fried has pitched in Atlanta, he has finished with a sub-3.00 ERA in four of those years. His career ERA is just 3.03 and he's just two years removed from finish runner-up in the Cy Young Award voting.
It feels like most Braves fans have come to the expectation that Fried will be gone come this time next year due to what happened with Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson in free agency, but I think it's imperative that the Braves make Fried a focal point in free agency. It's not too often a guy of Fried's caliber comes around, and the Braves are going to have to pay the price for a premium starting pitcher in free agency, regardless. They have already saved money on this roster through some classic Alex Anthopolous discounts and could afford to go out and pay Fried what he deserves to make.
Jonathan: Chris Sale - First of all Grant's correct, it's actually Strider, but it wouldn't be a very interesting section here if we all agreed, would it? So let's just make the case for Sale -- his upside is in the Cy Young territory, we know he can be at that level, he's finished in the top-5 after all seven times. Yeah, it's been a while, he hasn't thrown more than 140 innings since 2019 and it's unlikely he'll ever throw 200+ again like he did several times in his prime.
But what if he's healthy? Alex Anthopoulos has pointed out all offseason that a lot of what has set Sale back the past few years are fluky kinds of injuries, and that the the kinds of elbow/shoulder issues you'd have more structural concerns with look clean on the left-hander. So, okay, give him health, give him a change of scenery, and let's be optimistic and give him 175 innings -- at that point the evidence we have is that he'd produce some possibly Cy worthy numbers. Even stumbling through injuries, he's got a 3.93 ERA (117 ERA+) in 151 innings since 2021. He just put up a 3.07 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 14 2/3 spring innings. If Sale, who turns 35 on Saturday, turned those spring numbers into regular season numbers and he stays healthy by the time the playoffs start he might very well be Atlanta's ace, without there needing to be some disaster befalling Strider or Fried -- just simply because he's been that good.
Acuna Jr. HR/SB Totals Will he have another record-setting year?
How many home runs and stolen bases will reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. have in 2024?
Reggie: 40/40 - I'm a little bit worried about the knee. Naturally, Ronald had a great season last year with no injury issues. Before you jump all over me and say that I am insane and that I'm a hater on Ronald Acuna Jr., a 40/40 season is still insane. The only difference is that Ronald had an even better season last year. So, I will say a 40/40 season upcoming for Ronald Acuna Jr. and I am very excited to see what he does in 2024.
Maria: 44/56
Grant: 50/50 - Well, as someone who tracked every homer and every stolen base last year on social media, exhaustively so by the time we got to the end of it, I know I shouldn't even be talking about it and I know I shouldn't even be thinking about it. But when Ronald was asked about it in spring training, he said he wasn't going to put any limits on it. Ozzie Albies has been his hype man for years, and he called for it in 2019. I think he can do it. I'd love to see a 50-homer season from Ronald. I definitely think he can get the steals. A 50-homer leadoff man, think about that.
Reeves: 42/65 - I would love to see a 50-HR season from Ronald Acuna Jr. But, I still think he hovers his home run total around last year's, which was 41. I'm going to say less than 70 steals only because he was striving so hard for that number toward the end of last season. Who's to say that he won't up the anty and go for even more this year, but I will lean toward a *slight* regression from last year. If I had to pick 50+ homers or 70+ steals, I'd actually lean more toward a power surge from Acuna Jr. and say he gets across the 50 homer mark.
Jonathan: 55/45 - The question with Acuña really for me is do you think he'll largely replicate last season or hit for a bit more power while cooling the jets some? (Those are of course not the only possibilities, maybe he both hits more homers and steals more bags! But this is where I land currently.) My gut instinct is we see the MVP have a bit more of a conventional slugger's year and cool the jets some. Barry Bonds -- who for, well, several reasons is an imperfect point of comparison, but bear with me -- peaked as a steal threat in his age-25 season with 52 and began hitting more home runs into his late 20s. I think Acuña, heading into his age-26 season, will generally follow a similar pattern (without, you know, following the Bonds pattern into his 30s for obvious reasons).
We also asked new Bally Sports Braves TV analyst CJ Nitkowski his predictions on some of those questions. You can see his answers below.