ATLANTA — It's not very often in the MLB postseason that each team's most highly-anticipated matchup comes in the NLDS.
But when the series pits together the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, that's exactly what you get. The Braves will be looking to exact revenge on their NL East counterpart after the Phillies eliminated them from the postseason in an identical scenario a year ago.
The Phillies are riding the momentum of a Wild Card Series sweep over the Miami Marlins in which Citizens Bank Park was electrified in its truest postseason form during both nights. The Braves, however, were MLB's best team in the regular season and will play Games 1 and 2 in the comforts of Truist Park.
So what can we expect from this series?
Braves vs. Phillies hitting
For one, there shouldn't be a shortage of offense.
The Braves were pretty much tops in every major offensive category this season, but the Phillies' offensive explosion in the second half of the season vaulted them into the top 10 in several key categories -- home runs, runs scored, batting average and OPS.
The Braves had five players hit 30 or more home runs, making the scoreboard look like video game numbers when Atlanta's lineup is up there. Matt Olson hit the most home runs in baseball this year with 54 and the team also has soon-to-be National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. who became the first player to hit at least 40 homers and steal 70 bags in a season.
Atlanta's lineup is certainly deeper one through nine, as they have All-Stars Orlando Arcia and Sean Murphy at the bottom half of the order along with last year's NL Rookie of the Year, Michael Harris II. It's hard to argue a better top five in baseball than Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Olson and Marcell Ozuna (the five with 30+ HRs).
Conversely, the Phillies lineup has been getting hot at the perfect time.
After signing shortstop Trea Turner to a massive contract last offseason, he disappointed his first several months. During the months of August and September, however, Turner hit .316 with 16 HRs and 42 RBI.
Philadelphia hit a league-high 59 long balls in August and coupled that with a combined 32-23 record in August and September to clinch the top Wild Card spot.
The Phillies lineup is also deep in its own right. With Schwarber at the top, Turner right behind him and playoff sparkplug Bryce Harper in the middle of the order, the top half of the lineup is fearful. J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos are solid bats in the bottom half, but the Phillies lineup weakens in the 8-9 hole, as they have been starting former Brave Cristian Pache and rookie Johan Rojas in left and center field, respectively.
Braves vs. Phillies pitching
Both teams have exceptional offenses, there's no doubt about that. If there's a "weakness" that each team shares, it comes from their pitching staffs.
Each the Braves and Phillies has an excellent 1-2 punch, as Atlanta will be rocking Spencer Strider and Max Fried the first two games. The Phillies' top two are Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, although they will be sending Ranger Suarez to the mound in Game 1 after Wheeler and Nola pitched the Phillies to wins over Miami.
After Strider and Fried, Atlanta will have a decision to make. The way the off-days shape up this year, they can more than likely pitch Strider and Fried twice (in a potential Game 4 and 5). After those two go, the Braves could either go with Kyle Wright -- who has been injured most of the year and is still finding his footing after returning -- or Bryce Elder -- who was an All-Star for the Braves but struggled mightily in the second half with a 5.41 ERA.
A bullpen game is also a possibility with the likes of Michael Tonkin and Daysbel Hernandez in the mix if the Braves wind up not starting Elder -- or at least want to bridge the gap from Elder to the backend relievers.
For Philadelphia, after Suarez, they will likely send Wheeler and Nola to the mound in Games 2 and 3. Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez are other options Philly can utilize however they may want to -- both of whom had ups and downs during the season.
Both the Braves and Phillies had some of the best bullpen ERAs in the MLB this season, which may surprise some people. Atlanta's was 11th best at 3.81 while Philadelphia's was 7th best at 3.58.
Predictions
A few members of the 11Alive staff gave their predictions and what they believe the X-Factor will be in this series for each team to get it done.
Reeves Jackson - Braves in 4
Reach Reeves on X @ReevesJackson_
X-Factor: Which team can manage their pitching the best and limit the big innings from the opposition?
We know that each team is going to score their fair share of runs throughout the series, but at the end of the day, whichever team can limit excess damage should win the series.
I think the Braves are going to do a better job of that, especially with an on-paper advantage with Strider and Fried in the first two games at home. I see Atlanta taking a 2-0 lead into Philly before the Phillies get a big win at home in front of a raucous home crowd in Game 3. But at the end of the day, I believe Spencer Strider has his revenge game in Philly after getting roughed up three hits, five earned runs in just 2.1 innings. The Braves offensive will capitalize off the Phillies' mistakes and will show why they were the best lineup in baseball all season long.
Jonathan Raymond - Braves in 5
Reach Jonathan on X @jisaacraymond
X-Factor: The big bats. If you accept that both Atlanta and Philly come into this series with electric 1-2 starters and glaring holes after that, and if you accept that they both come into the series with deep lineups where even the bottom of the order can get hot, then where the Braves can really create separation comes back around to the top of the order.
All respect is due to the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm, but if - a crucial if – they hit in line with season norms and if - if! - Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Matt Olson bat in line with season norms, then what you'll see is a Braves offense that scored 947 runs and tied the team home run record this year against a Phillies offense that scored a strong-but-not-extraordinary 796 runs. The Philadelphia bats can run hot (they did last year, of course, in eliminating Atlanta) but the baseline gulf between the Braves' best bats and Philly's is wide. If it stays wide - it's the playoffs, though, anything can happen - it's probably too much ground for the Phillies to make up.
Bill Dobilas - Phillies in 4
Reach Bill on X @BillDobilas
X-Factor: Bryce Harper. No one is more clutch on either team. Add that to the atmosphere when the series goes to Citizens Bank Park and that is a recipe for disaster for the Braves.
Series schedule and TV channels
- Saturday, Oct. 7 - Game 1: Phillies at Braves, 6:07 p.m. EST, TBS
- Monday, Oct. 9 - Game 2: Phillies at Braves, 6:07 p.m. EST, TBS
- Wednesday, Oct. 11 - Game 3: Braves at Phillies, 5:07 p.m. EDT, TBS
- Thursday, Oct. 12 - Game 4 (if necessary): Braves at Phillies, 6:07 p.m. EST, TBS
- Saturday, Oct. 14 - Game 5 (if necessary): Braves at Phillies, 6:07 p.m. EST, TBS
By the numbers - home field advantage
- The Phillies own a 24-11 postseason record at Citizens Bank Park, dating back to 2007
- The Braves are 9-5 in postseason games at Truist Park, dating back to 2018