11Alive Sports offers a dry run of expectations when holding the No. 10 slot in 12-team drafts (PPR scoring), working exclusively off an ESPN.com mock from June 29.
For this 16-round draft, with two tailbacks, two wide receivers and a RB/WR flex as the starters, I initially planned to adopt the time-tested '4-2-1 strategy' in PPR leagues, calling for four high-end receivers, two targets-friendly tailbacks and either a top-seven quarterback or top-five tight end.
However, that plan went out of the window ... after not loving the receiver values for Rounds 2 and 4.
So, we adjusted on the fly.
Oh, in case you're wondering ... Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (three-game suspension to start the season) wasn't drafted at all. This can be explained in two ways:
a) There's incredible depth at quarterback with 12-team leagues.
b) My fellow fantasy GMs apparently don't have faith in Winston staying healthy for Weeks 4-14, even though he started all 32 games for 2015-16.
ROUND 1 (Pick 10)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: RB Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
Option #2: WR Michael Thomas, Saints
Option #3: WR Julio Jones, Falcons
BREAKDOWN
If I had known the run on receivers would be quick and thorough, I might have opted for Michael Thomas (my No. 4 PPR wideout) over Kareem Hunt (my No. 7 overall playmaker).
That aside, there's absolutely no downside to grabbing Hunt (1,782 total yards, 11 TDs in 2017) late in Round 1.
Hunt endured the typical inconsistencies of rookies, rolling for 100 total yards and/or one touchdown in his first seven games ... and then repeating the feat in his final four regular-season outings.
And in between, the University of Toledo product plainly averaged 59 total yards and zero touchdowns.
ROUND 2 (Pick 15)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
Option #2: RB Melvin Gordon, Chargers
Option #3: RB Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
BREAKDOWN
With 19 slots until the Round 3 pick, I honestly would have been happy with Fournette (1,342 total yards/10 TDs last year), Gordon (1,581 total yards, 12 TDs last year) or McCaffrey.
Fournette and Gordon are easy locks for 1,400 scrimmage yards/double-digit touchdowns ... and C-Mac has a ton of PPR upside in the new Panthers offense (directed by Norv Turner).
McCaffrey's 80 catches and 113 targets from last year represent a reasonable starting point for 2018. Of his final 15 games last season, McCaffrey accounted for five catches or one touchdown 13 different times—highlighted by the six-catch, 117-yard, one-TD effort against the Saints in the wild-card round.
ROUND 3 (Pick 34)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: WR Jarvis Landry, Browns
Option #2: WR Golden Tate, Lions
Option #3: WR Allen Robinson, Bears
BREAKDOWN
Landry, the only NFL receiver in history to collect 400 receptions over his inaugural four seasons, should do just fine in the Browns offense (led by O-coordinator Todd Haley); and for everyone who thinks he'll struggle mightily in Cleveland, here's something to lament:
During Landry's tenure in Miami, the Dolphins had a four-year average of ranking 21st in scoring ... and yet, Landry found the end zone nine times last year.
The only historical worry: Landry has developed a curious track record of only amassing 100-plus catches in odd-numbered years.
ROUND 4 (Pick 39)—MOTIVE: Best tailback or wideout available
Option #1: RB Kenyan Drake, Dolphins
Option #2: RB Jordan Howard, Bears
Option #3: WR Amari Cooper, Raiders
BREAKDOWN
With Landry gone, the tailback Drake assumes the mantle of the Dolphins' best playmaker.
For his final six games last year, Drake stealthily averaged 107 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns; and for Weeks 9-15, immediately after Jay Ajayi was traded to Philadelphia, Drake caught 26 of 36 balls—for an impressive catch-to-target rate of 72 percent.
Bonus: In Drake's case, he's perhaps the NFL's fastest tailback.
ROUND 5 (Pick 58)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Option #2: TE Greg Olsen, Panthers
Option #3: WR Corey Davis, Titans
BREAKDOWN
Typically with PPR drafts, I would rather walk to Charlotte (from Atlanta) than select a quarterback in the first seven rounds; but there are exceptions to every hard-and-fast rule.
In this case, Aaron Rodgers (my top-ranked quarterback) simply has too much value at 58th overall.
Charting his last three healthy campaigns (2014-16), Rodgers posted robust annual averages of 4,210 yards passing and 39 touchdowns.
At the very least, he'll offer top-3 production when at full strength. No other quarterback can guarantee that heading into training camp.
ROUND 6 (Pick 63)—MOTIVE: Best wide receiver or tight end
Option #1: WR Corey Davis, Titans
Option #2: WR Devin Funchess, Panthers
Option #3: TE Evan Engram, Giants
BREAKDOWN
This is a pure 'upside' pick with Davis (zero regular-season TDs), based on his incredible athleticism and run-after-catch potential.
It also helps that Davis saved his best performance for last ... collecting five catches, eight targets, 63 yards and two touchdowns during the playoff loss to the Patriots.
ROUND 7 (Pick 82)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: WR Sterling Shepard, Giants
Option #2: WR Kelvin Benjamin, Bills
Option #3: RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions
BREAKDOWN
I'm happy with the Shepard pick, in theory.
Strategy-wise, though, I was trying to wait one more round before drafting Lions tailback Kerryon Johnson, who should enjoy a fabulous rookie campaign in Detroit.
Instead, I got burned by one damn pick. Oh well, live and learn.
The positives for Shepard are easy to point out: Even with last year's offensive debacle (only 59 catches/2 TDs), the Oklahoma product still produced three elite-level outings for the Giants—seven catches, 133 yards, one TD vs. Philly (Week 3), 11 catches, 142 yards at San Francisco (Week 10) and 11 catches, 139 yards and one TD at Philly (Week 16).
ROUND 8 (Pick 87)—MOTIVE: Best tailback or tight end available
Option #1: RB Tevin Coleman, Falcons
Option #2: RB Jamaal Williams, Packers
Option #3: TE Trey Burton, Bears
BREAKDOWN
Various Web sites have Ty Montgomery or Aaron Jones listed as the Packers' feature back, but I'm not buying it.
For his final eight games as a rookie, Jamaal Williams averaged 93 total yards and 0.6 touchdowns; and during this span, the BYU product collected at least five targets four times.
ROUND 9 (Pick 106)—MOTIVE: Best wide receiver or tailback
Option #1: WR Marqise Lee, Jaguars
Option #2: WR Martavis Bryant, Raiders
Option #3: RB Carlos Hyde, Browns
BREAKDOWN
Let's be honest here: My receiving corps doesn't have much star power. The only way to remedy this situation—outside of pulling off a monumental trade during the regular season—comes in the form of flooding the roster with wideouts during the middle rounds.
Hence, the run on three straight receivers over the next 24 slots.
Regarding Lee, from Weeks 2-13 last year (spanning 11 games), he modestly averaged five catches, 58 yards and 0.4 touchdowns for the Jaguars' hot-and-cold passing game.
My favorite part of that stretch: Lee notched nine-plus targets six times; and he'll surely be Blake Bortles' No. 1 option this season.
ROUND 10 (Pick 111)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: WR Martavis Bryant, Raiders
Option #2: RB Carlos Hyde, Browns
Option #3: RB Devontae Booker, Broncos
ROUND 11 (Pick 130)—MOTIVE: Best wideout or backup QB available
Option #1: WR Mike Williams, Chargers
Option #2: QB Matt Ryan, Falcons
Option #3: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
BREAKDOWN
In my best Darth Vader voice: The upside is strong with this one.
ROUND 12 (Pick 135)—MOTIVE: Best defense
Option #1: D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars
Option #2: D/ST Philadelphia Eagles
BREAKDOWN
Never be afraid to select a defense or kicker in Rounds 11 or 12. The elite performers are worth it during this period, especially if you have a great understanding of late-round value among the receivers, tailbacks and tight ends.
The Jacksonville choice was a slam dunk for me. Last year, this young, but dominant defense posted top-six rankings for sacks, fumble recoveries, interceptions and defensive touchdowns.
ROUND 13 (Pick 154)—MOTIVE: Best backup quarterback
Option #1: QB Jared Goff, Rams
Option #2: QB Marcus Mariota, Titans
Option #3: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
BREADKOWN
There's no excuse for Goff (3,804 yards passing, 29 total TDs in Year 2) being available at the 154th pick.
He's my No. 8-ranked quarterback, ahead of Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees.
The only downside to this selection: With Aaron Rodgers and Goff in tow, I don't have any elite 'handcuff' options among the tailbacks, wideouts or tight ends.
(If you've read anything from me over the last 10 years ... handcuffs are a MUST in PPR circles. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown single-handedly carried me to a fantasy championship in a highly competitive league last year.)
ROUND 14 (Pick 159)—MOTIVE: Best kicker available
Option #1: PK Justin Tucker, Ravens
Option #2: PK Greg Zuerlein, Rams
Option #3: PK Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
ROUND 15 (Pick 178)—MOTIVE: Best tight end available
Option #1: TE O.J. Howard, Buccaneers
Option #2: TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars
Option #3: TE Benjamin Watson, Saints
BREAKDOWN
In his final five games last year, rookie O.J. Howard accounted for three outings of three-plus receptions, four-plus targets and three total touchdowns.
Will this modest finishing kick be enough to supplant Cameron Brate this fall?
Thankfully, it doesn't really matter. The Buccaneers do a great job of implementing two tight ends, thus allowing the offense to flow freely, regardless of down and distance or who's on the field.
ROUND 16 (Pick 183)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: RB T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars (Fournette handcuff)
Option #2: WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
Option #3: WR Dede Westbrook, Jaguars
Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and 2015 Cynopsis Media award winner for "Sports Blog Of The Year," has previously served as the lead fantasy analyst for Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports South, Bleacher Report and Fanball.com.
