ATLANTA–How's this for a scalding-hot take:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a greater chance of making the playoffs with Jameis Winston ... than riding the coattails of 35-year-old journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Now that we've acknowledged patently obvious conclusions, let's focus on how the Atlanta Falcons might be affected–if at all–by Winston's three-game suspension, due to alleged off-field conduct unbecoming of an NFL player (and face of a franchise).
Even though Tampa Bay won't see Atlanta until Week 5.
Here are five questions to ponder, involving Winston, the Buccaneers and Falcons, at large:
1. Should the Buccaneers release Winston between now and September?
For starters, let's operate under the following assumption: We may never know the truth about what happened with Winston and the Uber driver, when the two were apparently alone in a vehicle.
It might be a textbook case of He Said/She Said. It might be something far more damning. Who knows? Only time will tell.
As such, until more facts become concrete, there's really no point in forming a definitive 'conduct' judgment, one way or the other.
This much, however, cannot be refuted: Winston needs to make better decisions in his everyday life. Yes, the kid has amazing athletic talent and warm charisma to match; but it all amounts to bupkes in professional sports and society, if the former Heisman Trophy winner cannot demonstrate consistent maturity off the field.
Otherwise, he'll eventually become part of a select group of athletes who seemingly had the world at their feet ... only to let eminently correctable character flaws hasten the demise.
As for the Bucs, they've got a momentous decision in the offing: Winston's base salary would sharply rise from $705,000 this fall (excluding signing-bonus money) to $20.9 million in 2019, if the two parties don't agree on a long-term extension within the next 12 months.
Of course, if Tampa Bay officials boot Winston altogether, the financial hit would essentially be nil (in NFL parlance), since the 2019 balloon payment isn't guaranteed.
Either way, this marks a tenuous time to be Winston's agent. Yes, your client was the first quarterback in history to twice eclipse 4,000 yards passing before his 23rd birthday, but that selling point holds minimal water, when also factoring in Winston's off-field transgressions and 18-27 record as a starter.
2. Should the Buccaneers be Vegas underdogs for their first three encounters–at New Orleans, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Pittsburgh?
Winston picked the worst possible time to get suspended.
This fall, Tampa Bay will be the only NFL team to open with three straight playoff participants; and frankly speaking, very few would be surprised if the Saints, Eagles and/or Steelers ended up in the upcoming Atlanta Super Bowl.
Consequently, the Buccaneers might be dealing with low expectations for Weeks 1-3, regardless of who's starting at quarterback or where the games are taking place.
For those who don't follow the NFL with a daily passion, the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh fan bases travel extremely well for road games; and this will ring true even more in the Eagles' case, as they attempt their first Lombardi Trophy defense of the Super Bowl era (1966-2017).
Back to Week 1: The Westgate Las Vegas sports book already has public betting lines for the NFL's opening weekend. Among the point spreads of six points or more ...
Jets (+6) @ Lions
Steelers (-7) @ Browns
Texans (+7) @ Patriots
Bears (+9) @ Packers
... and Buccaneers (+7 1/2) @ Saints
Depending on how Fitzpatrick plays in the opener, the Buccaneers could be 'pick 'em' or slight favorites against the Eagles and Steelers for Weeks 2 and 3. But right now, the respective betting lines will likely lean toward Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, respectively, by maybe a field goal.
After all, Fitzpatrick was 2-1 as the Bucs' starter last season, subbing for the injured Winston. For the three outings, Fitz averaged 248 yards passing, two touchdowns and just one interception.
3. What might be the state of the Tampa Bay running game, come Week 5?
Rookie tailback Ronald Jones should feel emboldened to end every summer workout with one more sprint or one more set of reps with the medicine ball.
Why is that? The lofty, but modest goals of the post-draft period have quickly been eclipsed by workhorse thoughts, in light of Winston's unplanned absence for most of September.
In his final season at USC, Jones accounted for 1,673 total yards (1,486 rushing) and 19 touchdowns, while averaging only 21.3 touches per outing; and judging by the many highlight videos devoted to the speedy and elusive back, it's easy to envision Jones becoming the Buccaneers' lead back for Week 1.
In fantasy lingo, Jones may get off to a flying start with Winston not in the same backfield.
There is historical precedent at play here, as well: The Buccaneers have drafted just three running backs in Round 1 or 2 since 1997–Warrick Dunn, Cadillac Williams, Doug Martin.
The above tailbacks averaged 1,156 total yards and 8.3 touchdowns in Year 1.
4. Will the Falcons be at a competitive advantage for Week 5, given how Winston has a 'bye' week to prepare for the Oct. 14 clash?
In the old days, this might have been a feather in Winston's cap.
However, given the explicit constraints of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, thus limiting the amount of practice time during bye weeks, it might be hard for Winston to get enough formal repetitions with the other Bucs playmakers, before everyone breaks for mini-vacation.
Of course, there's nothing stopping the likes of Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard from informally fetching Winston passes during the Week 5 bye.
It's just typically not done.
The tangible blessings of Winston's suspension, timing-wise?
a) A Week 4 return (vs. the Bears) might be enough to shake off the post-bye rust.
b) Of his last three encounters with the Falcons, Winston has accounted for 10 touchdowns and just one interception.
5. Would Tampa Bay have a realistic chance of winning the NFC South with a 1-2 or 0-3 start?
From my perspective, the Buccaneers should only be solid favorites four times this season-–Week 7 (vs. Cleveland), Week 8 (@ Cincinnati), Week 10 (vs. Washington) and Week 12 (vs. San Francisco).
Every other weekend matchup, on paper, should be a prohibitive challenge for Tampa Bay, regardless of who's playing under center.
With such a narrow margin of success, the Buccaneers (averaging 5.3 victories since 2011) absolutely must avoid a repeat of last year's offensive and defensive failures.
Such as:
**31st in passing yards allowed
**21st in rushing yards allowed
**23rd in points surrendered
**Minus-1 turnover differential
**Dead-last in sacks collected
**27th in rushing yards per game
**27th in yards per rush
**25th in rushing touchdowns
