11Alive Sports invokes a history-based look at the keys to creating the perfect NCAA tournament bracket.
The mythology of the perfect bracket gained peak hysteria in 2014, when billionaire Warren Buffett and Quicken Loans joined forces for an ambitious contest, offering $1 billion to a letter-perfect prognosticator.
And now, a number of sports sites host similar contests (albeit for millions – not billions) ... knowing they'll never be called upon to make the absurd payout.
(TV announcer voice: "You could be a millionaire for life!!!!")
Why is that?
Well, the odds of posting a flawless bracket – including the NCAA title game on April 8 – are something in the neighborhood of 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
Be honest here: Before reading the above graph, did you even know we even had a quintillion level of unrealistic measurement?
However, that doesn't mean striving for perfection is a total waste of time. It's still the best mindset for winning your bracket office pool over the next three weekends.
Here are nine tips to help you do the unthinkable: Nail every pick of the 2019 NCAA tournament:
TIP #1 – DON'T GET CUTE WITH THOSE SCRAPPY 16-SEEDS
Maryland Baltimore-County (UMBC) pulled off the biggest coup in tournament history last year, thrashing top-seeded Virginia in the first round (by 20 points).
It marked the first and only time a No. 16 seed had advanced into the second round ... dating back to 1985, when the NCAA tournament expanded to a 64-team field.
An amazing upset for sure; but let's focus on the pragmatic message here, moving forward: Don't expect history to repeat itself in back-to-back years. The list of super-close calls at the 1-versus-16 isn't prohibitively long.
1985: Top-seeded Michigan trailed No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson by 10 points midway through the second half – without a shot clock – before rallying for a four-point victory.
1986: Eventual national runner-up Duke got all it could handle versus Mississippi Valley State, relying on a late burst to avoid a first-round shocker.
1989: Easily the most famous 1-versus-16 game in NCAA history.
Princeton owned an eight-point halftime lead on vaunted Georgetown (led by Alonzo Mourning) and held strong for the entire second half ... before falling one point short on the scoreboard.
During the pregame show, ESPN analyst Dick Vitale famously declared that he'd "hitch-hike to Providence" (from Bristol, Conn.) and don a Princeton cheerleader's uniform for the weekend ... if the Tigers could earn this monumental upset.
Now, that would have been a sight for TV.
1989: On the same weekend of Princeton-Georgetown, Oklahoma nearly committed a gaffe for all time, falling behind East Tennessee State by nearly 20 points in the first half, before rallying for a one-point victory.
The Sooners carried that shaky momentum into the Sweet 16 round, getting bounced by a Virginia squad that would lose to Michigan by 37 points in the regional final.
Michigan State needed extra time to ward off Murray State ... which could be a great Sweet 16 sleeper this year (12-seed in the West).
TIP #2 – ALWAYS CONSIDER 'FIRST FOUR' TEAMS FOR THE SWEET 16
At the minimum, a First Four graduate has advanced to the Round of 32 every year since the tournament expanded to 68 schools in 2011.
That's a remarkable stat, considering all eight schools were prohibitive underdogs for Rounds 1 and 2 ... or in the case of the 2011 VCU squad – big-time 'dogs for four of the five rounds.
2018: Syracuse (Round of 16)
2017: USC (Round of 16)
2016: Wichita State (Round of 16)
2015: Dayton (Round of 16)
2014: Tennessee (Round of 16)
2013: LaSalle (Round of 16)
2012: South Florida (Round of 32)
2011: VCU (Final Four)
TIP #3 – NCAA HISTORY SELDOM REWARDS 4-SEEDS IN THE TOURNEY
In 1978, the NCAA tournament adopted an odd form of regional seeding, essentially separating automatic berths (conference champions) from at-large schools.
A year later, the seeding process was modified to the current system we know and love today.
Since 1979, only one 4-seed has captured the national title – Arizona in 1997; and that Wildcats team, led by Miles Simon and freshman Michael Bibby, became the first program in NCAA history to knock off three No. 1 seeds (Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky).
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TIP #4 – RESPECT THE 'POD' ADVANTAGE IN THE ROUND OF 32
Since the 'pod' system was created in 2002, allowing the best teams to play closer to home on opening weekend, the top-4 seeds are a staggering 53-2 inside their home state for the first game (including Maryland in Washington, D.C.).
In other words, there's no pressing need to project a first-round upset within this scenario.
However, if you're going to pick a 'pod' upset for Round 2, involving a top-4 seed playing in its home state, keep this thread in mind:
Charting the last six in-state pod upsets (2014-18), each shocker involved an ACC team.
2012: 15th-seeded Lehigh topples No. 2 Duke in Greensboro.
2014: No. 14 Mercer upends No. 3 Duke in Raleigh, N.C., despite the Blue Devils absurdly racking up 15 three-pointers made.
2015: Top-seeded Villanova lives down to its reputation of being upset fodder on opening weekend, falling to North Carolina State in Round 2.
However, this would serve as a nadir point for the Wildcats ... who would capture two national titles over the next three years (2016, 2018).
2017: It's one thing for a heralded program like Xavier to beat Florida State ... but a 25-point spread in Orlando? Whoa!
2018: No. 2 North Carolina picked the worst time to go cold from the field and be lax with full-court pressure. The end result: Texas A&M continually dunked its way to 21-point rout in Charlotte.
2018: Michigan State was a popular choice for the Final Four and national championship last year, despite being placed in the same region as Kansas and Duke.
These prospective battles never took place, though, with the Spartans losing to Syracuse in Detroit for Round 2 (55-53).
For this hard-to-fathom upset, MSU outrebounded Syracuse by 21 boards (51-30) ... but posted under-30 shooting percentages from the field and three-point line.
TIP #5 -- RESPECT '1' AS A PRIME NUMBER
Since 1979, the first year of the NCAA's modern-day seeding system (1, 2, 3, 4, etc.) – spanning 40 seasons – the No. 1 seed has captured 23 national championships ... an ultimate-success rate of 58 percent during this span.
The rest of the championship tally, seed-wise, breaks down like this: #2 (seven national titles), #3 (five), #4 (one), #6 (two), #7 (one, Connecticut in 2014) and #8 (one, Villanova in 1985).
TIP #6 – MAJOR UPSETS TYPICALLY OCCUR IN THE SAME REGION
Last year, 3-seeded Michigan had one of the least cumbersome paths to the NCAA title game in recent history, taking care of business against Montana (14-seed), Houston (6-seed), Texas A&M (7-seed), Florida State (9-seed) and Loyola-Chicago (11-seed) ... before losing to Villanova in the championship bout.
And for the South region, none of the top four seeds (Virginia, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Arizona) even reached the Sweet 16 round.
For those with extremely short memories, since it was already referenced above, Virginia became the first 1-seed in NCAA history to lose to a 16 (Maryland-Baltimore County) in the first round.
In other years ...
**For 2009, 2011 and 2012, the 11-13 seeds of the same region pulled off coinciding shockers.
**In 2013, the West region's 12, 13 and 14 seeds (Ole Miss, La Salle, Harvard) were giant-killers for a day.
**In 2014, the double-digit seeds (headlined by Dayton, Stanford, Harvard) collectively notched nine tourney victories.
Our advice here: If you're going to boldly predict a handful of staggering upsets in the first two rounds, try to localize 'em to one particular region.
TIP #7 – LET HISTORY BE YOUR GUIDE WITH 5-12 MATCHUPS
Charting the last 30 seasons (1989-2018), the No. 5 seeds have swept the 12s during the Round of 64 only four times – 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
And yet, the sweep percentage for 4-versus-13 matchups in that same 30-year cycle runs substantially higher ... at nearly 70 percent.
That's good news for this year's crop of 12-seeds: Murray State, New Mexico State, Liberty and Oregon, which needed the Pac-12 tournament title to make the NCAAs ... but might have the easiest path among the foursome to the Sweet 16 round.
Our advice: At the risk of being random here, when it comes to 5-versus-12 games, the '2-2 Rule' of picking two 5-seeds and two 12-seeds has some merit.
TIP #8 – NOT ALL NUMBER 1 SEEDS ARE CREATED EQUAL
All four No. 1 seeds have reached the same Final Four just once since 1979 – 2008 with Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA and eventual champion Kansas.
In fact, since 1993, all four top seeds for a particular year have collectively advanced to the regional final just seven times (1993, 2001, 2003, 2007-09, 2016).
The best advice: Invoke some Lawrence Welk-type thinking when choosing a Final Four for your bracket.
TIP #9 – IGNORE ALL 5-SEEDS AS CHAMPIONSHIP OPTIONS
Since the modern-day seeding system was put into place, a No. 5 seed has never won a national championship.
This doesn't bode well for current 5-seeds Mississippi State (East), Auburn (Midwest), Marquette (West) and Wisconsin (South).
In fact, only three 5-seeds have reached the title game (2000 Florida, 2002 Indiana, 2010 Butler).
On a less surprising note, no back-end seed (Nos. 9-16) has ever captured the NCAA title ... meaning there's no point in earmarking the likes of New Mexico State, Liberty, Belmont, Oregon, Seton Hall or Georgia State for championship glory.