ATLANTA — Potential Tropical Cyclone Five formed Sunday afternoon is less than 1,000 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico and is showing signs of organization. As it approaches the Leeward Islands, it is expected to become a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm early this week.
Tropical Storm Warnings have now been issued for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the northern and the Leeward Islands in advance of the system.
It is forecast to become a tropical storm later Monday. The next name on the list is Ernesto. It will then pass over the Leeward Islands. By Wednesday morning, it's expected to pass over Puerto Rico.
The system is forecast to strengthen to a category two hurricane as it turns north and moves into open water. It may pass very close to Bermuda by early this weekend.
Environmental conditions appear conducive to gradual development as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five moves west. Wind shear, which can limit tropical formation, is low, and sea surface temperatures remain unusually warm.
If Potential Tropical Cyclone Five strengthens into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Ernesto. The average date that the "E" storm typically develops in the Atlantic is August 22, so it would be slightly earlier than average.
The system will be worth watching for potential impacts along the Atlantic coast, but right now, it looks likely that Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will avoid landfall on the continental U.S.
The Bermuda High over the central Atlantic is shifting east. This shift in the atmospheric currents may help steer PTC 5 northward, but it will depend on the strength of the high and its location.
Spaghetti models are currently in good agreement for a northward turn after Potential Tropical Cyclone Five passes the Leeward Islands.
Once a closed center of circulation develops, we get better model data, so the forecast could change. Stay tuned!
Although hurricane season begins June 1, the tropics typically don't start to heat up until August. The statistical peak of hurricane season is September 10.
