ATLANTA, Georgia — Hurricane season is still in full swing, with a new storm brewing. Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon and is expected to become the 11th hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Rafael has winds of 45 miles per hour. It could become a hurricane before reaching Cuba Wednesday, and remain a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Although Rafael's center will not pass over Georgia, tropical moisture will work into the state from the Gulf of Mexico as Rafael nears the Gulf. Rainfall totals will continue to fluctuate until models agree.
Hurricane Warnings have now been extended from the Cayman Islands to western Cuba. A tropical storm watch will be in effect for the Florida Keys. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for Jamaica.
Spaghetti Models are in good agreement in the near-term, with the center of Rafael passing through the Caribbean and over the western part of Cuba.
But beyond then, there is a split in models. Notice two 'clusters' below. Some models keep the storm weaker and steer it westward towards southern Texas. Others pick it up with an upper low and steer it more into the north-central Gulf.
Hurricane season does not end until the end of November. Temperatures are getting cooler as we head towards the end of fall, but the water in the Caribbean is still warm. If there is any development, this could fuel a storm.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic ends on November 30. However, the Caribbean often sees late-season tropical development. There were no November storms in 2023. Hurricane Nicole in 2022 was one of the recent notable November storms. Nicole was the fourth storm to make landfall in the United States.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of this hurricane season.
