ATLANTA — It has been fairly quiet for most of this hurricane season compared to the past few years, but this week we are tracking a low chance for tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Only three named storms have occurred in the Atlantic Basin so far this year. While chances for formation are considered low with this system, it will earn the name Danielle if it does manage to intensify, but that is not likely.
The area of possible development is sitting just off the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.
This system has a 10% chance of development over the next 2 to 5 days. Earlier, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 30% chance for development, then reduced it to 20% and now a 10% chance for developing into a tropical depression or storm.
The system was causing heavy rain along the northern Gulf coast including the Alabama coast and the Florida Panhandle. It is forecast to hang out just off of the coast then move inland along the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coastline on Wednesday.
While there will be gusty wind for some, heavy rain will be the main concern for those along the coast.
Parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico will receive more than 4 inches of rain over the next seven days, with a majority of that rain occurring within the next 24 hours.
The models are having a really hard time with the track of this developing low. There are not a lot of consistencies between models and from run to run on how it is going to develop and the track it takes. The models are consistent on enhancing the moisture from the Gulf into our area. That translates into higher rain amounts for parts of Georgia.
This system will help to bring more rain to our area, with one to two inches of rain possible over the next seven days. We will continue updating these amounts and rain chances over the next few days.
With so much additional rainfall on an already saturated ground, we may end up with localized flooding in spots. Be sure always to avoid flooded areas and to turn around, don't drown if you come across a flooded roadway.
While we have a bit of activity now, it has been a relatively quiet hurricane season so far, with only three named storms.
We still have plenty of hurricane season to go, with peaks typically occurring around late August and early September. The season ends on November 30.
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