We are looking ahead at a lot of variables to determine our spring weather outlook. We get a 90 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center that usually performs pretty well. I wanted to be just a little more specific than the CPC outlook.
This year, there aren't any dramatic predictions for the spring time months. Things are looking close to average for a typical spring season in Atlanta and north Georgia. There is one variable that is standing out a little that keep us from an "average" year. El Nino has been showing signs of developing for months. Finally, it is showing a little consistency and has now been declared as a "weak" El Nino.
El Nino is the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean. Believe it or not, that temperature rise on the surface waters can sometimes disrupt weather patterns and have an effect on us here in the southeast. That consistency in that warming helps me to feel a little more confident in my spring forecast.
I am forecasting slightly above average rainfall. I'm also forecasting slightly above average precipitation. As far as severe weather chances, it's been a little slow over the past few years. 2014 was near average for severe weather. I'm thinking this year, thanks to El Nino and a jet stream that could provide a little more upper level support, I'm am forecasting a slightly above average year for severe weather.
Georgia averages 26 tornadoes a year. Georgia also averages 69 thunderstorm days each year. If my forecast is right, we would have a little more than that this year.
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