ATLANTA — Atlanta has picked up over 8 inches of rain this month, yet we've seen only small improvements in the drought.
In the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released on Thursday, July 25th, 'Severe' Drought is still ongoing in parts of Fulton, Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee, Bartow, and Paulding counties. This is based on data from the morning of Tuesday, July 23 and does not include the previous two evenings' worth of heavy rain on top of the Atlanta metro area.
According to Georgia State Climatologist Bill Murphey, some of the greatest 'gains' in remedying the drought in the last week have been across central and south Georgia. "We went from 41% of the state in D1 'Moderate' Drought to 31% this week. We've seen some improvements in the last week, and I expect to see more with the next drought monitor."
With tropical moisture over north Georgia, the pattern of daily scattered showers and storms has been ongoing throughout the last 10 days. And we should see this pattern holding on in the near term.
"We've gone from a Rapid Onset Drought in June due to the lack of rain and hot temperatures over the opposite this month. Soil moisture has improved a lot. And now we're seeing a lot of runoff from these heavy rain events this week, leading to flooding"
We've really gone from Famine to Feast here in Atlanta. In June, we picked up 1.74" of rain, resulting in a rain deficit of nearly 3 inches.
In July, it's been the opposite. To date, it's been our wettest calendar month since October 2020 -- nearly 4 years ago! We're within the top 20 wettest Julys on record and could get to the top 10. We've had 8.09" of rain through the 24th. And 5 separate days this month alone picked up over 1" of rain at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.
So, are we almost out of the drought? Murphey says mostly.
"If the wetter pattern holds, I would expect the D2 'Severe' Drought to be mostly eradicated when our next drought monitor is released next week," he explained.
As we close out the month, there is a daily chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms over the next week.
Murphey remains optimistic about the future, "At present, the Gulf remains wide open. This bodes well for keeping us out of drought."
With a La Nina expected by the peak of hurricane season, this increases the outlook of tropical cyclone formation. If we get a tropical system landfall in the Gulf that rides into or west of Georgia, this can also enhance rainfall prospects. But -- too much of a good thing at once can also lead to flooding risks.