ATLANTA — Gov. Brian Kemp is on track to win his reelection bid against Stacey Abrams, a new 11Alive poll indicates.
The Georgia governor has generally tracked ahead of Abrams in polling across the last few months, with our newest poll showing a widening lead compared to our last poll of this race in early October.
The newest poll was conducted for 11Alive by SurveyUSA between Oct. 29-Nov. 2 among 1,171 likely November Georgia voters.
It shows Kemp with 52% support, with Abrams at 45% and Libertarian Shane Hazel at 1%, and another 2% undecided.
It tracks fairly closely to recent other polling - the RealClearPolitics polling average has Kemp at roughly 52% (51.7%), and Abrams at 43.2%. The results suggest the governor could have a chance to avoid a runoff on Election Night, which would require clearing the 50% + 1 vote threshold.
Additionally, SurveyUSA took polling on favorability: Kemp registered a 45% favorable/32% unfavorable split, while Abrams was at 37% favorable/46% unfavorable.
Full Georgia governor poll results
- 1,171 likely November Georgia voters
- Margin of error 3.7%
- 53% female, 47% male
- 61% white, 29% Black, 5% Hispanic, 5% Asian or other
- 42% Republican, 41% Democrat, 15% Independent
Question: If the November election for Georgia Governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
- Brian Kemp (R): 52%
- Stacey Abrams (D): 45%
- Shane Hazel (L): 1%
- Undecided: 2%
Favorability results
- 1,507 registered voters
- Margin of error 3.6%
- 53% female, 47% male
- 58% white, 29% Black, 8% Hispanic, 5% Asian or other
- 41% Republican, 38% Democrat, 17% Independent
Question: Is your overall opinion of Brian Kemp favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion?
- Favorable: 45%
- Unfavorable: 32%
- Neutral: 18%
- No opinion: 6%
Question: Is your overall opinion of Stacey Abrams favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion?
- Favorable: 37%
- Unfavorable: 46%
- Neutral: 13%
- No opinion: 5%
Additional insights
- Abrams potentially has more room for improvement if she can drive turnout: She leads among voters who said they were only "probably" going to vote, 49-44%. She also had a slight lead among those who said they already voted, 51-49%. Kemp leads among those who said they were "100% certain" to vote, 56-41%.
- Kemp is strong with self-identifying independent voters: That block of voters, who made up 15% of respondents in the head-to-head questioning, favored him 54-39% over Abrams.
- Racial breakdown: White voters preferred Kemp 74-23%, Black voters preferred Abrams 90-9%, Hispanic voters preferred Kemp 50-41%, and Asian or other voters preferred Abrams 59-36%.
- Gender breakdown: The female preference was split 49-49%, while male voters preferred Kemp 55-41%.
- Split-ticket signs: It remains to be seen if split-ticket voting actually registers as a factor in Georgia in 2022, but this poll had Kemp winning 11% of voters who said they planned to vote for Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, while Abrams had the support of just 2% of respondents who said they planned to vote for Republican Herschel Walker. Among Democratic responders, Kemp had a 6% preference, while among Republican responders Abrams had a 3% preference.
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