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Georgia voting shifts stir intrigue for upcoming 2024 Presidential Election

GOP state has tipped but not toppled into blue turf.

ATLANTA — Tuesday's Georgia Presidential Primary Election results delivered predictable wins for Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.

Yet, it gives voters a chance to look ahead to November. 

Georgia sort of flipped from Republican to Democrat in the 2020 election. Yet, on primary night, it remained unclear whether that would hold into November 2024.

RELATED: President Joe Biden has won enough delegates to clinch the 2024 Democratic nomination

Voters of color have been a reliable constituency for Democrats. However, at the Buckhead Library, Ricardo Williams showed that Republican Donald Trump may at least get a share of those votes this fall.

"Wanted to make sure we supported Donald Trump today," Williams told 11Alive News after he voted. "I think it’s important more people from my demographic show up; stand up. I feel like we got tricked last time."

Democrat Charlie Bailey said Joe Biden’s razor-thin victory in 2020 means next to nothing in this fall’s election.  

"Trump could win Georgia," Bailey said on Tuesday, shortly before polls closed.  "I think the president (Biden) will win. But I think it will be extremely, extremely competitive."

Republicans at the top of the ticket won four of the last five gubernatorial and presidential elections in Georgia. 

From 2014 to 2018, Republican margins of victory steadily narrowed until Democrat Biden barely won Georgia in 2020. Then, two years later, Gov. Brian Kemp mostly restored the Republican margin from a decade earlier.

RELATED: Trump wins delegates needed to become GOP’s presumptive nominee for third straight election

Bailey said Kemp's 2022 victory was unique because of his willingness to challenge Trump's false claims of a stolen 2020 election. 

In addition, Bailey said Kemp "gained a certain amount of benefit of the doubt from voters in the middle and maybe even some Democrats because he did not go along with trying to overthrow the government." 

Democrats say Georgia’s newer voters tend to be younger, more educated and more Democrat-leaning, but Republicans say they’ve quietly gained among working-class voters and just enough voters of color.

Republican strategist Leo Smith, who specializes in GOP minority engagement, said, "In 2024, Trump is tracking to get about 10% of the Black vote" compared to 8% in 2020. 

Smith said he won’t support Trump but that Trump is messaging effectively to just enough Black voters to make Democrats nervous.

"(Trump) is a better candidate than he was the previous two times he ran, except for the fact that he’s embroiled in criminal charges," Smith said.  "You take that away, and he’d be a better candidate." 

Smith said Trump has been less erratic and somewhat more disciplined in 2024 while making fewer public appearances.

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