ATLANTA — In the most expensive midterm cycle in American history, it appears that donors will pour the most money into Georgia’s Senate contest. The trend continued into the final days of the race, according to federal elections data reviewed by 11Alive.
Sen. Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker received roughly $1.4 million in direct contributions from Oct. 27 to Nov. 4. Warnock brought in just shy of $800,000 while Walker brought in more than $579,000, filings with the Federal Election Commission show.
The haul, which offers only a partial view of the political cash dump ahead of Tuesday’s midterms, adds to the nearly $143 million raised by the Georgia candidates during the cycle, according to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan nonprofit that tracks money in U.S politics. Federal Election Commission filings put the number closer to $160 million.
The next closest race is Pennsylvania’s Senate race with just over $140 million, OpenSecrets reports.
The election could determine which party controls the chamber. Democrats hold sway over the evenly-split Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. Republicans seek to gain control of the House and Senate for the final two years of President Joe Biden’s term.
As Walker and Warnock seek to avoid a December runoff, the money continues to flow.
“The fact that you see this type of investment in this election is a reflection of how competitive the race is and what the stakes are,” said Emory University political science professor Andra Gillespie.
Warnock's cash haul
Warnock has outraised every other Senate candidate on the ballot in 2022. As of Oct. 19, Georgia’s junior senator raised $123 million, according to federal campaign disclosures. That’s $32 million more than Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who raised the second-highest amount.
Warnock raised the most money from California (roughly $13.4 million), followed by Georgia ($7.3 million) and New York ($6.9 million.)
Warnock has roughly $10.5 million on hand for the final stretch, and contributions continued in the final days
Under federal election law, campaign committees must file Form 6 reports – 48-hour notices when it receives a contribution of $1,000 or more. The contributions reported are received less than 20 days but more than 48 hours before Election Day.
Since Oct. 27, Warnock’s campaign reports that it received around 600 donations worth $1,000 or more. The campaign brought in nearly $831,000 during the nine-day period.
Warnock received the most money from the following five states:
California, $178,738.50
New York, $99,841.98
Massachusetts, $70,525.00
D.C, $44,800.00
Washington, $39,880.00
Warnock raised $35,000 from Georgia residents, which ranked sixth in total contributions. 11Alive removed several duplicate transactions found in Warnock’s report.
Several factors could explain Warnock’s nation-leading fundraising, Gillespie said. The senator began fundraising for the 2022 election as soon as he defeated Kelly Loeffler in the 2021 special election runoff.
“The fundraising we see happening in Georgia is very much a reflection of the fact that this seat is perceived as flippable, and that Democrats really want to hold on to the seat,” Gillespie said. “(Warnock) knew this was going to be an uphill battle to hold on to the seat.”
Walker's cash haul
Though Walker has not raised as much as Warnock, the Republican brought in nearly $38 million as of Oct. 19 – the 13th most during this election cycle.
Walker raised the most money from Georgia ($6.9 million), followed by Florida ($2 million) and Texas ($1.6 million). He entered the final stretch of the race with more than $5.4 million on hand.
Walker’s campaign reports that it received 322 donations of $1,000 or more from Oct. 2t to Nov. 4. The campaign brought in $579,000 during the nine-day period. He received the most money from the following states:
Georgia, $123,890
California, $59,600
Texas, $52,895
Florida, $47,200
Virginia, $32,100
Small donors, outside spending and a potential runoff
The recent Form 6 filings offer only a partial picture of the money flowing into the race in the final days. They don’t take into account outside spending or small donors.
FEC filings show that small donors – contributors who give less than $200 – accounted for roughly 48% of Warnock’s total and roughly 44% of Walker’s contributions as of mid-October.
Outside groups have also spent more money in Georgia this cycle than almost anywhere else. According to OpenSecrets, outside groups have spent $161.8 million in Georgia. Nearly $59.6 million has been spent against Republicans while $57.9 million has been spent against Democrats.
Only Pennsylvania ($233.6 million) has seen more outside spending.
In Georgia, the Republican-affiliated Senate Leadership Fund spent $38.5 million with almost all of it dedicated to buying ads, sending mail and otherwise advocating for Warnock’s defeat. Democratic Super PAC Georgia Honor spent just under $38.5 million with almost all of its spending targeting Walker.
Other groups that spent more than $1 million in this cycle include:
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte., $10.8 million
Americans for Prosperity Action, a Republican-affiliated group, $10.1 million
VoteVets.org, a self-identified progressive group that spent against Walker, nearly $7 million
National Republican Senatorial Cmte., $6.4 million
National Victory Action Fund, a Republican-affiliated group, nearly $6 million
34N22 Inc., a pro-Walker SuperPAC, $5.1 million
Make America Great Again Inc., a Donald Trump affiliated SuperPAC, $3.4 million
Black PAC, a self-identified independent, Black-led SuperPAC, $2.6 million
Opportunity Matters Fund, a SuperPAC aligned with South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott, more than $2 million
National Rifle Association (NRA) Victory Fund, $1.6 million
Our American Century, a Republican-affiliated SuperPAC, $1.4 million
Family Friendly Action PAC, a Democratic-affiliated SuperPAC, $1.3 million
Climate Power Action, a SuperPAC, nearly $1.2 million
Women Speak Out PAC, a Republican-affiliated group, just over $1 million
Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund, just over $1 million
The groups are continuing to spend in the final days. Elections data shows that 34N22 spent $25,000 on anti-Warnock digital ads on Nov. 4.
Campaigns are required to file a post-election finance report by Dec. 8, which will offer a more complete picture of the raising and spending in the race.
Polling data suggests that Warnock and Walker could end up in a runoff.
Last week, 11Alive’s poll showed Warnock leading Walker, 49%-43%. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight, a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis and politics, shows Walker with a 1 point lead, but neither candidate is above 50%. Under Georgia law, a candidate must receive 50% of the vote plus 1 to avoid a runoff.
If a runoff is forced and majority in the Senate is still up for grabs, Gillespie said we’d see a repeat of the 2021 runoff cycle.
The runoffs saw Warnock and fellow Democrat Jon Ossoff shatter fundraising records.
“If we go into a runoff season, the competition is cleared,” she said. “Right now, there are lots of competitive Senate races where all of the candidates are competing for finite resources. So, if other competitive states … have already been decided, then all eyes are on Georgia.”