We are closely watching a developing system nearing Florida that could become our next tropical depression or tropical storm. This is very early in the development of this system. So far, the models have been varying greatly with the forecast tracks and intensity forecast. There is a lot that could change with this forecast.
This is how we see it right now. NHC is increasing the likelihood that this system will strengthen. They are giving it a 40% chance of development over the next two days and a 70% chance of developing over the next seven days.
The center of the developing low is nearing eastern Cuba. It is in an environment that isn't really conducive for rapid development right now. It will be encountering land over Cuba, which will make it hard to strengthen. The latest models show it moving into the Gulf just to the west of the Florida peninsula. Once it gets into the Gulf, that's when it could start getting stronger.
Here's a look at just a few spaghetti model plots. These show the center of circulation entering the Gulf, then moving northward and eventually northeastward, either crossing the Florida peninsula or entering south Georgia. There is a wide range of landfall possibilities at this time. We will keep fine-tuning it as the system develops and moves into the Gulf.
Here's a look at two of the main models. The European model and American model are pretty close with the movement and location of the low.
By Sunday morning, the EURO shows the low off the coast of Tampa and moving northeast toward the Florida peninsula.
The American -- or GFS models -- show it already moving inland in a similar location early Sunday morning.
This isn't a 100% slam dunk. It's really early in the formation of this storm. We will keep analyzing the models as they change once this low becomes better organized.
As of right now, metro Atlanta looks to have minimal impacts. South and central Georgia may have some impacts based on this current forecast. We will continue tracking and fine-tuning the track and intensity.