ATLANTA — Despite the 3+ week dry spell, the drought is not back in metro Atlanta... yet.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor was released Thursday morning, October 24th and shows we're still reaping the benefits of the record-setting rain with Helene and the days preceding Helene at the end of September.
Some areas in southeastern and northwestern Georgia are in the D0 'Abnormally Dry' category (not quite a drought). This includes portions of Fannin, Chattooga and Floyd counties. A tiny sliver of northwest Georgia, about 0.31% of the state, is in a D1 'Moderate' Drought.'
This latest drought monitor is based on data collected on Tuesday, October 22, and includes a blend of analysis on soil moisture and rain outlooks, plus hydrological indicators.
Despite the monitor, it is getting dry!
However, although the drought monitor shows "no problem" in our area, locally, there is evidence of how dry things are getting—quite rapidly. Topsoil moisture has decreased.
Georgia's State Climatologist, Bill Murphey, says the writing is on the wall for the weeks ahead.
"We did have some minor D0 expansion in Northwest GA this week along with the current abnormally dry conditions in Southeast Georgia, and expect widespread expansion of D0 in the coming weeks ahead."
Murphey says this slower reflection on the drought monitor can happen with rapid-onset or quickly developing drought.
"For this type of rapid onset drying with rapidly declining soil moisture, The U.S. Drought Monitor can be a little slow to respond to conditions that are occurring in the field, especially with the lack of rainfall. This is because other hydrological indicators (such as streamflow conditions) lag behind. These strong mid-level High-pressure systems with dry easterly flow and good subsidence have dried us out quite rapidly and cut off the Gulf in the wake of the recent Tropical Cyclone activity (Helene and Milton)."
Rain-free days: By the numbers
Atlanta has become rapidly, very dry. Thursday will mark our 25th straight day without any measurable rain, and that streak will continue to grow. If we don't get any rain this weekend or next week, October 2024 will go down as the driest month ever for Atlanta!
But 25 days is not our city's longest dry streak. Not even close! Here are the top 5 longest dry spells for Atlanta. If we make 30 days, we'll reach the top 10. However, the top spot was an entire 43 straight rain-free days from late October through November of 2016.
It's not unusual for us to have longer dry spells in October. On average, this is our driest calendar month. In 2023, Atlanta had a 20-day-long rain-free stretch in the month.
Is rain in our future?
We remain cautious about being too optimistic about the chance of a few spotty showers by the end of the weekend. A cold front and wedge of cool air are sliding in for the second half of the weekend. Sometimes, moisture can move over this cooler air and produce rain.
This time around, there's not a lot of moisture to work with. More clouds will build in for Sunday and Monday. We've added a 20% chance for a shower. A few of us may get some sprinkles to dampen the pavement. Unfortunately, most of north Georgia will likely have to wait longer for raindrops to fall.
More dry spells may occur during the upcoming winter. A weak La Niña is forecast to develop and persist into the winter months. This can often lead to warmer and drier-than-average winters here in Georgia.