ATLANTA — Georgia will be one of the handful of battleground states most closely watched around the country on Tuesday as voters head to the polls for Election Day 2024.
But what should we be closely watching in Georgia?
Based on trends from the 2020 election, and what we've seen so far in early voting around Georgia, here are some of the counties that could potentially serve as bellwethers for the Peach State as we track returns later Tuesday night.
Counties to watch in Georgia | 2024 election
Washington and Baldwin counties
- Why they're interesting: These two neighboring counties, sandwiched in the area between Macon and Augusta, were the two with the tightest results in the 2020 election. Both tipped -- just barely -- to President Joe Biden, with Washington County returning just a 0.8% margin of 50.0% to 49.2%. Baldwin went for Biden 50.0% to 48.8%. They're not highly-populated counties -- about 18,000 votes total in Baldwin in 2020 and fewer than 10,000 in Washington -- but that means their complete results should be in soon in the evening, and given that they were the closest to mirroring Biden's actual 0.3% victory in the Peach State, they may give an early hint of what's to come.
Clayton County
- Why it's interesting: Clayton's heavy turnout for Biden -- he won about 85% of the county with more than 95,000 votes -- was credited as one of the key tipping factors in the 2020 election. The question heading into Election Day is -- will Clayton show up again? The county's early voting turnout was softer than other inner metro Atlanta counties just 46.5%, and roughly 25,000 voters will need to turn up on Election Day to match Clayton's roughly 110,000 total votes from 2020. If they don't, it will be an uphill battle for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Lowndes County
- Why it's interesting: Somewhat similarly, Lowndes -- home to Valdosta -- is one of the larger counties outside of metro Atlanta in the state, and it strongly supported former President Donald Trump in 2020 (55.4%, more than 25,000 votes). While early voting turnout surged in the Trump strongholds of north Georgia, this Florida border county in south Georgia saw just 49.8% (Lowndes) turnout before Election Day. It needs about 9,000 Election Day votes to reach the 2020 total.
Chatham County, Bibb County, Muscogee County, Richmond County, Dougherty County
- Why they're interesting: Again, you have some of the most populated cities outside of metro Atlanta in the state -- Savannah in Chatham, Macon in Bibb, Columbus in Muscogee, Augusta in Richmond, Albany in Dougherty -- with softer early voting turnout (48.5% in Chatham, 45.2% in Bibb, 49.4% in Muscogee, 43.2% in Richmond, 36% in Dougherty). Albany in Dougherty County is particularly acute, with just more than 21,000 votes in early voting compared to about 34,000 total votes in 2020 at a nearly 70% rate for Biden. These are all places the Harris campaign needs to turn out big on Tuesday.
Fayette County
- Why it's interesting: So far, we've mostly focused on turnout, but this is another county to watch as a potential bellwether. The rapidly expanding county south of Atlanta went for Trump at 58% in 2016, then about 53% in 2020, and then two years later supported Republican Herschel Walker in the Senate race against Democrat Raphael Warnock at 50% (it did also go for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp at 57% in 2022). We've seen other metro Atlanta counties go blue as more and more people have moved in -- Cobb and Gwinnett, which both went for Mitt Romney in 2012, have turned solidly blue in the elections since. According to population estimates, Fayette has added about 16,000 residents since 2012 -- could it be the next metro Atlanta county tipping in the blue direction?
Burke County
- Why it's interesting: What about a county that went red between 2016 and 2020? That would be Burke, just south of Augusta, which supported Hillary Clinton with 50.6% in 2016, and then Trump with 50.5% in 2020. They also gave Herschel Walker 53% in the 2022 Senate elections, so we'll see Tuesday if it goes even deeper red in 2024.