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Tropical Storm Helene forms, forecast to become major hurricane in Gulf of Mexico | Track, spaghetti models and advisories

Landfall is expected Thursday in northern Florida

ATLANTA — Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the Caribbean Sea as of 11 a.m. Tuesday. It has winds of 45 mph with higher gusts. The storm is moving northwest at 12 mph, and will later 'thread the needle' between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. 

Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall late Thursday along Florida's Big Bend region. In anticipation of the storm's impacts, Florida's governor issued a State of Emergency.

11Alive has issued a Weather Impact Alert for Thursday and Friday in north Georgia due to impacts from Helene.

Download the 11Alive News mobile app and turn on alerts to get the latest updates on the storm's track from our team. Stream extended forecasts and live radar on the 11Alive+ streaming app, available on Roku, Amazon Fire and Apple TV.

Latest track

Helene is forecast to move into the Gulf as a tropical storm, then strengthen to a Category 3 Hurricane before making landfall along the panhandle of Florida by Thursday evening or early Friday.

Credit: WXIA

The storm is forecast to weaken as it moves northward through the state of Georgia, but depending on its strength and track, it could have huge impacts on the area. It is forecast to still be a Tropical Storm when passing through north Georgia.

Credit: WXIA

Spaghetti models:

It's still too early to be 100% confident in this track, but the models have been consistent so far. They are very similar in placement of the low as it approaches the coast. The spaghetti models are pretty similar to the NHC track. 

Credit: WXIA

Watches and warnings:

Here's a look at the tropical watches and warnings issued near the storm. 

There are now Hurricane Watches in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida, including Tampa Bay. These also extend inland through north-central Florida to the Georgia state line. 

Tropical Storm Watches are in place in the areas shaded in yellow.

Credit: WXIA

We will be monitoring all of these potential impacts this week and narrowing down all of these risks.  It will be determined by the intensity of the storm, the speed of the storm and the track of the storm. If the system tracks east of Atlanta, our impacts would be less. If it tracks west of Atlanta or through Atlanta, we would see more impacts.

Other tropical development?

There is another tropical wave to watch coming off the coast of Africa. This system has a 80% chance of development.  

Credit: WXIA

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